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| GDT: Game 34 Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres Dec. 17th 7pm http://www.sabresjunkie.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=7854 |
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| Author: | Yhoshi [ Mon Dec 16, 2013 2:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | GDT: Game 34 Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres Dec. 17th 7pm |
JETS
VS SABRES Quote: Destination and paths. Many people are obstinate about the path once it is taken, few people about the destination. - Nietzsche |
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| Author: | Crosscheck [ Tue Dec 17, 2013 11:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: GDT: Game 34 Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres Dec. 17th 7p |
also, Matt Ellis still up. |
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| Author: | Vanek_Fanatic_26 [ Tue Dec 17, 2013 4:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: GDT: Game 34 Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres Dec. 17th 7p |
I imagine these are Spengler Cup moves. |
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| Author: | BagBoy [ Tue Dec 17, 2013 9:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: GDT: Game 34 Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres Dec. 17th 7p |
Jeepers Creepers! Why do they keep talking about Corsi numbers? It's a completely meaningless horseshit "statistic". |
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| Author: | Skyline_BNR34 [ Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: GDT: Game 34 Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres Dec. 17th 7p |
BagBoy wrote: Jeepers Creepers! Why do they keep talking about Corsi numbers? It's a completely meaningless horseshit "statistic". They are the only stat needed to tell if a team or player is good. |
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| Author: | Vanek_Fanatic_26 [ Wed Dec 18, 2013 10:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: GDT: Game 34 Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres Dec. 17th 7p |
BagBoy wrote: Jeepers Creepers! Why do they keep talking about Corsi numbers? It's a completely meaningless horseshit "statistic". Not really, but if you refuse to learn about it, I guess it is. |
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| Author: | Vanek_Fanatic_26 [ Wed Dec 18, 2013 10:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: GDT: Game 34 Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres Dec. 17th 7p |
Three places to really learn about Corsi and "advanced stats" in general: Extra Skater is a new one, but breaks everything down in terms of percentages. Behind The Net calculates the total Corsi as a rate per 60 minutes. Here's a 10-part series on more statistical analysis in the NHL I don't like this one as much, but it's out there and highly regarded. The Sabres don't do the stat justice, as with most stats, there are more underlying things as to why a teams Corsi may be so low, such as quality of linemates and competition, offensive or defensive zone starts, PDO (which is no more than your teams shooting percentage + save percentage when your on the ice.) |
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| Author: | BagBoy [ Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:13 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: GDT: Game 34 Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres Dec. 17th 7p |
<double post> |
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| Author: | BagBoy [ Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: GDT: Game 34 Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres Dec. 17th 7p |
BagBoy wrote: Vanek_Fanatic_26 wrote: BagBoy wrote: Jeepers Creepers! Why do they keep talking about Corsi numbers? It's a completely meaningless horseshit "statistic". Not really, but if you refuse to learn about it, I guess it is. Basically all it is the SOG plus missed shots and blocked shots, so this means the more times you get your shots blocked or you miss the net, the “better” you are. So therefore, if a player comes down the wing and shoots wide causing the puck to go all the way back to his own zone, he still gets a “plus”. Or how about when a D-man gets the puck at the point, has time to wrist it toward the net, but chooses instead to crank a full wind up, and then the opposing winger blocks the shot and creates a breakaway for himself? The D-man gets a Corsi “plus” for this. Look, I get it that in general more shots is better than fewer shots, but this stat is just plain stupid, even if it was cooked up in the Sabres' organization. In fact, it makes me wonder if there isn’t some sort of correlation between the fact that we are paying attention to it as an organization, and the fact that we’re easily the worst team in this league. |
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| Author: | Vanek_Fanatic_26 [ Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: GDT: Game 34 Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres Dec. 17th 7p |
BagBoy wrote: BagBoy wrote: Vanek_Fanatic_26 wrote: BagBoy wrote: Jeepers Creepers! Why do they keep talking about Corsi numbers? It's a completely meaningless horseshit "statistic". Not really, but if you refuse to learn about it, I guess it is. Basically all it is the SOG plus missed shots and blocked shots, so this means the more times you get your shots blocked or you miss the net, the “better” you are. So therefore, if a player comes down the wing and shoots wide causing the puck to go all the way back to his own zone, he still gets a “plus”. Or how about when a D-man gets the puck at the point, has time to wrist it toward the net, but chooses instead to crank a full wind up, and then the opposing winger blocks the shot and creates a breakaway for himself? The D-man gets a Corsi “plus” for this. Look, I get it that in general more shots is better than fewer shots, but this stat is just plain stupid, even if it was cooked up in the Sabres' organization. In fact, it makes me wonder if there isn’t some sort of correlation between the fact that we are paying attention to it as an organization, and the fact that we’re easily the worst team in this league. Considering the top teams have the best Corsi and Fenwick percentages, you coulnd't be further off with that statement. That's simply the fact. There are outliers because of the luck factor, like Toronto, last year and the beginning of this year, but they're starting to fall off. There are outliers the other way too, like Dallas. Your top 10 teams in points right now are
Meanwhile, your top 10 teams in Corsi are:
There's definitely a correlation between how a team performs and how many shots they direct at the net compared to how many a team allows. 7 of the top 10 teams in points are proficient in the Corsi metric. The Sabres are dead last in the Corsi metric, which explains their latest stretch of games. Another closer look at Fenwick (same as Corsi, but it doesn't include blocked shots, as it considers a player blocking a shot to be a determined skill) shows that the Sabres have been outshot in that metric in 26 games. They've only won 5 of those games, good for 19%. Meanwhile in the 7 games they've "out-Fenwick'd" another team, they've won 3 of those games, good for 43%. It's a small sample size because very rarely outperform other teams in that metric, but let's say we put that over a rate of 82 games. If they're always out-performed in the metric that yields 5 of 26, they're on pace to win just 16 games. If we express the other metric at a rate of 82 games, it yields a pace of 35 wins. That's a huge difference! I hope this was able to at least help your understanding of why it might matter a little more than you think it does. I wasn't trying to be smug about it, but a large portion of why people don't like Corsi/Fenwick/advanced stats in general is because people don't understand how they work, or they don't care to understand. Which is fine, too. We can watch this team with our eyes and know that they're bad at possessing the puck. The reason we use shot attempts as the metric is because there's no more reasonable method to calculate puck possession at this moment. The thinking behind it is basically that the team that attempts more shots than the other team possesses the puck longer as well. It isn't perfect, but it's the closest thing that correlates to actual team performance in a statistical method. EDIT: I'd like to mention that these are the Corsi and Fenwick metrics with the score close (down by 1, tied, or up by 1) so as to take away effects from a blowout game |
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| Author: | BagBoy [ Wed Dec 18, 2013 5:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: GDT: Game 34 Winnipeg Jets @ Buffalo Sabres Dec. 17th 7p |
I don’t doubt for a second that higher Corsi numbers have and always will correlate positively with better teams. I’m not saying the stat is “wrong” per se. It’s just a stupid stat. Teams with the highest ‘goals for’ vs. ‘goals against’ ratios also tend to be the best teams, but nobody gets excited about that stat. My understanding of the Corsi is that at its core, it is simply trying to quantify puck possession, since there is nobody out there tabulating the actual time of possession, like they do in soccer. Maybe it’s time to start tabulating time of possession. I think that would be a very informative stat. Anyway the Corsi is obviously a flawed way of quantifying possession. For example, those Soviet teams of the 70’s and 80’s virtually always had an obvious advantage in time of possession over Team Canada. They did this by doing precisely the opposite of what the Corsi rewards, namely being very selective with their shots, and passing the puck back and forth until they got a good shot opportunity. So, if we’re trying to quantify puck possession, don’t you think counting passes would be a much more valid piece of the puzzle than how many times you got your shot blocked? I sure do. Plain old-fashioned shots on goal (SOG) is a far superior stat to the Corsi, and the only reason the Corsi appears to have any relevance is because SOG’s are the vast majority of its data points. Every SOG “could” be a goal. Zero missed nets and almost zero blocked shots can be goals. Missing the net is very frequently a bad play for the offense, and blocked shots are almost never good for an offense. These are not stats that should be rewarded. No coach of mine ever gave me a pat on the back for missing the net or getting a shot blocked. |
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