Republican Wins in Virginia, New Jersey Build Momentum for 2010

There were seven candidates running in this week's three most closely watched races, and only one racked up a landslide victory. The others weren't what you'd call prime examples of political talent.

With the possible exception of big winner Bob McDonnell, now the Republican governor-elect of Virginia, charisma took a holiday. Competence did too, in some cases.

It was painful to watch Virginia Democrat Creigh Deeds unable to come up with clear, consistent answers on national policy or even his own transportation plan; painful to watch unpopular New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine and his Republican challenger, Chris Christie, spar over Christie's weight, as Christie mini-scandals unfolded and independent Chris Daggett failed to get traction.

In northern New York's 23rd Congressional District, where Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman became the darling of the national conservative movement, it was painful to hear him haltingly answer questions on Fox News Channel while seated between two of his patrons, Fred and Jeri Thompson. Also painful was hearing from locals up there that Hoffman knew little about regional issues and that Bill Owens, the Democrat in the race, didn't do much campaigning.

But a win is a win. The sweep by McDonnell and Christie gave Republicans a major psychological boost and potentially more money and better candidates for 2010. And Owens' narrow victory not only tempered his party's bad day, it put that House seat in Democratic hands for the first time since the 1800s.

For President Obama, the only good news out of the governor's races was that exit polls suggested voters did not see them as a referendum on his nine months in office. But the same surveys showed Democrats have their work cut out for them heading into 2010, when the House, a third of the Senate and 37 governor's mansions are at stake.

The deep recession and continuing hemorrhage of jobs are a top concern of voters. And the groups Obama counted on last year -- independents, minorities and young people -- either voted Republican or didn't bother to vote.

Corzine's loss no doubt stung the most to the White House. Obama visited three times since July in an attempt to salvage at least one of Tuesday's two major contests. Half those who voted in Virginia and nearly six in 10 in New Jersey said they approved of Obama's job performance, but neither Corzine nor Democrat Creigh Deeds came close to those numbers. Deeds lost to McDonnell by 18 points.

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said the two gubernatorial races were the main events and why Obama tried so hard to help Corzine. In an off off-year election like this, he said, "we're inclined to chew over the results for a few days and then move on -- unless there is a reason to stay focused. The only reason would be both states moving in the same direction." That equals a trend, he said, "to the extent you can have a trend with two states."

According to exit polls, 46 percent of Virginia voters and 31 percent of those in New Jersey said the most important issue was the economy and jobs. As for GOP attempts to paint the races as all about Obama, 60 percent of New Jersey voters and 55 percent of those in Virginia said Obama was not a factor in how they voted. In New Jersey, the remaining voters were evenly divided between sending messages of opposition and support. There was a bit more of a no-confidence vote in Virginia, 24 percent to 18 percent.

Obama split independent voters with Republican John McCain last year in Virginia, but on Tuesday 60 percent of them went for McDonnell. Furthermore, the makeup of the electorate also was far different this year than it was when Obama captured the White House and became the first Democrat to carry Virginia since 1964. Young voters who comprised 21 percent of the Virginia electorate last year were only 10 percent this year.

Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told ABC that the true test of Obama's agenda and the durability of his coalition wouldn't come until 2010. He said Democrats would study who turned out Tuesday to see where they need to concentrate their efforts for 2010. Exit polling makes the extent of the challenge clear. Obama carried Virginia last year with 53 percent of the vote. Of those who came to the polls Tuesday, only 44 percent said they had voted for Obama last year.

Conservatives such as Karl Rove and Charles Krauthammer said on TV that the two gubernatorial victories essentially proved the gains Democrats made last year were ephemeral. Comedy Central's Jon Stewart beat them to punch, predicting tongue-in-cheek Monday night that Deeds would be "crushed by Republican Bob McDonnell, thus bringing an end to the Obama era."

In reality the Obama era has just begun. This election came nine months into said era, most of which has been spent recovering from the Bush era. Obama has been compelled to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on bank and auto bailouts and economic stimulus, all unpopular. At the same time he has launched an ambitious, complex agenda that is still in midstream, largely unpassed and unproven.

I was reminded of the dangers of jumping to conclusions when I encountered Thao Nang, an obstetrician-gynecologist from McLean, Va., at a recent McDonnell campaign event. An independent, she voted for Obama last year and has no regrets about that. She likes where he's headed on health care. And she has some uncertainties about McDonnell. She doesn't know if his plan to fix Northern Virginia's traffic gridlock will work and, unlike him, she is not "completely against" abortion -- she knows from her practice that it is sometimes necessary.

But just as she voted for change last year, Nang said she wants change this year, too. "Democrats control the House and the Senate and everything else. You need some balance," she said.

Well I think that goes both ways in politics, cuz I could have told you when Obama was running I hated his ads, and thought they were annoying, lol

Yeah, I typically don't like any political ads, but hoffman's were especially smug and annoying.

From our perspective, we won last night

I intensely dislike Doug Hoffman. Hated having to listen to his ads.

You know, they could have used a better picture of him. He looked like a doofus with his teeth all hangin' out like that. Are you far North enough to have had to deal with the Aubertine ads with the Republican running against him from Pulaski? I forget his name, but THAT race was intolerable. THere was more mud slinging there than a white trash wedding!

I'm glad its over and the phone calls will stop. THAT is also annoying. Worse than telemarketers.