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light at the end of the tunnel?
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Author:  ironyisadeadscene [ Sun Apr 04, 2010 5:29 pm ]
Post subject:  light at the end of the tunnel?
http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/04/04/ ... tml?hpt=T1

economy is healing, but still a long way to go.
Author:  slesh [ Mon Apr 05, 2010 7:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: light at the end of the tunnel?
You can't be serious Irony. These media and political hacks love to sell the "healing" or "turned the corner" line everytime numbers jump up. But if you look at where almost 1/3 of those jobs were created (the census hirings) combined with roughly 52% of those jobs (including the census hirings, because those numbers were included in this report) your looking at a roughly 78 thousand job creation, not 162 thousand. And when you look at the remaining 78 thousand, early estimates are 60% of those are seasonal summer positions.

This is nowhere near the number they portray it to be. Lets not forget the fact that the DOL jobless numbers only attribute a number based on current unemployment claims. There are currently some 20+ large unitiversity and independent studies ongoing, due to be completed post summer (August/September time frame) that are currently enroute to show a true unemployment estimate that some are already saying will shock the nation when they see roughly 20% or more overall unemployment.

This is not good news, not good news at all, and you combine that with the fact that most new hires come with some type of government offsets or direct funds to companies to hire, it becomes even clearer that its not a recovery at all, its in actuality a stagnation period. If you look at the publicly traded sector, some 30% of potential hires, currently the trading platforms are propping up these companies, it we see a second dip and a further receding trend in hedge fund and retirement plans, we could be looking at this stag period for 5 to 10 years.

It is not good news, not good news all the way around. I don't like when the hacks try to imply this is a potential recovery or leveling off when in all actuality all these numbers indicate is a massive temporary cash influx from you and I, the taxpayer as the country falls further into debt.
Author:  HelloMyKneeGrows [ Mon Apr 05, 2010 9:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: light at the end of the tunnel?
Very astute assesment Slesh. Another thing I think people fail to realize is that these are only jobs CREATED. This does not take into account jobs lost, which total almost 8 million in the last three years. If these numbers were even accurate, that takes about 50 months (or just a bit over 4 years) of this type of job growth just to RETURN to pre-housing market crash/dump/fiasco levels. Also, you are correct. It's long been known that the DOL guidelines for what they consider unemployment seriously underestimates real unemployment amounts, especially as it pertains to the structurally unemployed.

Obama telling us they created 160,000 new jobs without giving us a number of how many were lost is completely bogus (And yes, George Pubic Hair did the same thing, as do all Presidents). ESPECIALLY if we ended up losing more than that, there is no net gain.

Guy 1: Hey, my company sold $2 million worth of product this year!

Guy 2: Nice, what was your net gain for the year?

Guy 1: Well, we lost $5 million be we made $2 million!!!!!!!

......No, you LOST $3 million. Talking about job creation is all fine and dandy but means nothing if you're continuing to lose just as many.
Author:  Crosscheck [ Mon Apr 05, 2010 11:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: light at the end of the tunnel?
The stock market has been friggin fine for a year...how about those unemployment numbers?

I'm pretty sure having a job is the only "economic indicator" people give a shit about.
Author:  PuckSniperPensel [ Mon Apr 05, 2010 12:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: light at the end of the tunnel?
How else can we tell other than by personal experience at work?

I'm making more money than last year, and I'm spending more money than last year.

And the news says things are on the upswing.

Therefore, I believe it.
Author:  Crosscheck [ Mon Apr 05, 2010 12:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: light at the end of the tunnel?
Gee, I like your attitude PSP.

I've got a well paying job with benefits too...and hey, I just got a raise!
15% unemployment is Michigan?
12% in California?
14% in Nevada?

Fuck 'em, I got mine so it must be OK!

WooHoooo
Author:  PuckSniperPensel [ Mon Apr 05, 2010 1:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: light at the end of the tunnel?
Crosscheck wrote:
Gee, I like your attitude PSP.

I've got a well paying job with benefits too...and hey, I just got a raise!
15% unemployment is Michigan?
12% in California?
14% in Nevada?

Fuck 'em, I got mine so it must be OK!

WooHoooo


Did I say everything was fine and dandy?

I said I believe we're on an upswing because I see improvement in my area of business as compared to last year.

And if things are generally getting better, then eventually, things will get better for them too.
Author:  Crosscheck [ Mon Apr 05, 2010 1:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: light at the end of the tunnel?
I actually don't think your logic is valid at all. Optimistic but invalid.
You're making a massive assumption based on a fairly irrelevant very isolated data point.
Author:  PuckSniperPensel [ Mon Apr 05, 2010 1:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: light at the end of the tunnel?
Crosscheck wrote:
I actually don't think your logic is valid at all. Optimistic but invalid.
You're making a massive assumption based on a fairly irrelevant very isolated data point.


But it isn't based strictly on my personal experience.

It's a combination of what I see locally, in the news, and nationally.

Boat sales are up here, and in general, across the country. The major news outlets are saying that we're experiencing economic growth.

These consistencies lead me to believe that it's possible we're on an upswing.
Author:  HelloMyKneeGrows [ Mon Apr 05, 2010 1:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: light at the end of the tunnel?
PuckSniperPensel wrote:
Crosscheck wrote:
I actually don't think your logic is valid at all. Optimistic but invalid.
You're making a massive assumption based on a fairly irrelevant very isolated data point.


But it isn't based strictly on my personal experience.

It's a combination of what I see locally, in the news, and nationally.

Boat sales are up here, and in general, across the country. The major news outlets are saying that we're experiencing economic growth.

These consistencies lead me to believe that it's possible we're on an upswing.


I hope to God your not basing our country's complete economic picture on the idiots ON the idiot box plugged into your wall and boat sales in a small mountain vacation town in upstate New York.
Author:  PuckSniperPensel [ Mon Apr 05, 2010 3:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: light at the end of the tunnel?
HelloMyKneeGrows wrote:
PuckSniperPensel wrote:
Crosscheck wrote:
I actually don't think your logic is valid at all. Optimistic but invalid.
You're making a massive assumption based on a fairly irrelevant very isolated data point.


But it isn't based strictly on my personal experience.

It's a combination of what I see locally, in the news, and nationally.

Boat sales are up here, and in general, across the country. The major news outlets are saying that we're experiencing economic growth.

These consistencies lead me to believe that it's possible we're on an upswing.


I hope to God your not basing our country's complete economic picture on the idiots ON the idiot box plugged into your wall and boat sales in a small mountain vacation town in upstate New York.


Maybe you didn't read my post in its entirety. I'll highlight the part that you've obviously skipped.

If a very expensive luxury item is seeing sales improve nation wide, things are probably getting better.

If I can't trust the idiots on the idiot box, then how else am I supposed to gauge the country's performance? ESP?
Author:  slesh [ Mon Apr 05, 2010 3:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: light at the end of the tunnel?
Crosscheck wrote:
The stock market has been friggin fine for a year...how about those unemployment numbers?

I'm pretty sure having a job is the only "economic indicator" people give a shit about.

This is correct Cross.
To date, I have seen no data verifying manufacturing has grown at all. And whether people like to hear this or not, manufacturing (non farm/agri payroll jobs) is really the key to any recovery, both short term from this fiasco as well as longterm stability for the nation as a whole.

Instituting "Fair Trade Policies" with real teeth would go a long way to initiating a real recovery, and there in lay the problem. The reason that this process has stalled is simple, this nation cannot survive as a service based economy, and you can bet the administration, Congress and the individual state politicos know this is well. They just don't want to piss off the big trading partners such as China, Japan, India and the like because these current politicians are in bed with the raw resource material companies that current ship their products to these nations and get finished products in return at a nice, neat, dirt cheap, sweatshop price.

Isn't it nice to know that everytime you buy something from WalMart your actually cutting your own hand off :)
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