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CriminallyVu1gar
PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:21 pm 
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Squanto wrote:
CriminallyVu1gar wrote:
Even Doug Janik put up 2g and 9a in his first NHL season...


And his current career NHL totals are 3G 15A, so you could easily say that was a flash in the pan.

I don't think your assumptions are totally out of whack, I just tend to lean more towards a conservative estimate rather than just extending other stats over a full 82 game NHL season, that's all.




well the 2-12-14 is just Weber's average stats of the last three years in which he's played an average of 60 games. (more if I want to include his time with the sabres). If you increase that to reflect an 82 game season, then it would be more like a 3-15-18, which could be a bit of a stretch.

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CriminallyVu1gar
PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:27 pm 
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Whatever, we'll just see what Weber's point totals are after 60 and 82 games.

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CriminallyVu1gar
PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:44 pm 
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Squanto wrote:
This all assumes that Weber will have similar numbers as a full time NHL defenseman. I think that's a stretch to just assume that will be true.


I agree that you can't just transpose stats from a minor league into the NHL.

I disagree that that is the entire basis for my argument since half of those stats are pulled from Weber's time with the Sabres. While a quarter season's worth of call-ups aren't necessarily an indicator of how a player will perform over the course of the season, they should give a good idea of that guy's ability to perform at an NHL level.

Looking at the stats with a level head and some distinctly anti-SBFian common sense, I really fail to see how 2g and 12a over a season from Mike Weber is a stretch, even if he plays on the third defensive pairing.

Consider Tallinder, Campbell, Kalinin, and Sekara, the four most recent defensemen brought up in the Sabres' system with significant AHL experience (Butler only played 27 games and Myers didn't play any):

Tallinder and Kalinin did not experience a dip in production in the NHL versus the previous year's AHL stats on a points per game basis.

Sekara and Campbell did.


Out of Tallinder, Lydman, Campbell, Kalinin, Sekera, and Butler, they produced between .275 (Sekera) and .356 (Butler) points per game. Even if Weber comes in at .25 ppg, below all six of those defensemen, he's still going to net 20-21 points.

I understand the need to be conservative, and the vast difference in playing at the AHL and NHL levels, but there is nothing historically to suggest that Weber is going to come in and suffer from a lack of production.

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DS37
PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:57 pm 
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I'd add that Myers had 15,19 and 42 points in his last 3 seasons in the WHL before jumping in the NHL where he had 48 pts in his 1st year. Of course, Myers is in another world compared to Weber but, it happens often that players translate their AHL stats to the NHL level.

So, I'm with CV, 12-14 pts is not a stretch for Weber, even as defensive as he is. His career potential might be 25-30 per season, I think.


Anyway, for next year, I just hope Leopold will be as good as Loods, and that Butler and Sekera will step up. If Myers could become a good PP QB, wow, he'd reach 60 pts.

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CriminallyVu1gar
PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:20 pm 
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Weber was a second round draft pick so there's definitely talent there.

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HelloMyKneeGrows
PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 3:45 pm 
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CriminallyVu1gar wrote:
Weber was a second round draft pick so there's definitely talent there.


Weber reminds me a lot of a young Craig Rivet

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X-pensfan
PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:41 pm 
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What do you guys think about Weber playing with Myers at even strength?

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mechaphil
PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:43 pm 
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I like the idea of it and I think his playing style compliments Myers.

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HelloMyKneeGrows
PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:57 pm 
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mechaphil wrote:
I like the idea of it and I think his playing style compliments Myers.


Yeah. He may not be as offensive as Hank was, but your right, his stay at home, d first style would work great with Myers. and if giraffe neck gets his mean streak back from juniors that would be a mean pair to play against

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X-pensfan
PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 8:28 pm 
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HelloMyKneeGrows wrote:
mechaphil wrote:
I like the idea of it and I think his playing style compliments Myers.


Yeah. He may not be as offensive as Hank was, but your right, his stay at home, d first style would work great with Myers. and if giraffe neck gets his mean streak back from juniors that would be a mean pair to play against



Good.

It would be nice to know that there's always a tough guy close at hand when tempers flare. You definitely want Weber in the box for 5 instead of Myers.

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HelloMyKneeGrows
PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 9:52 pm 
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X-pensfan wrote:
HelloMyKneeGrows wrote:
mechaphil wrote:
I like the idea of it and I think his playing style compliments Myers.


Yeah. He may not be as offensive as Hank was, but your right, his stay at home, d first style would work great with Myers. and if giraffe neck gets his mean streak back from juniors that would be a mean pair to play against



Good.

It would be nice to know that there's always a tough guy close at hand when tempers flare. You definitely want Weber in the box for 5 instead of Myers.


Couldn't have said it better myself, although I do wanna see what that strokie fuck looks like when hes pounding the shit outta Chris Neil.

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mechaphil
PostPosted: Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:03 pm 
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Weber isn't known so much for his fighting as he is for his rib-breaking clean, crushing hits (Always remember, Cory Stillman. Always remember).

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Salzig
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 6:56 am 
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I think our D is pretty weak. We have one "elite" defender (Myers has to prove that he belongs to the top group, sophomores tend to fall into a slump) and the rest is at most average. Just take a look at our division rivals and their defensive cores.


Habs:
Markov - Subban
Hamrlik - Spacek
Gill - Gorges
O'Byrne

Leafs:
Phaneuf - Schenn
Kaberle* - Komisarek
Beauchemin - Gunnarsson
Finger

Sens:
Gonchar - Karlsson
Philips - Lee
Kuba - Campoli
Cowen, Carkner

Bruins:
Chara-Boychuk
Hunwick-Seidenberg
Ference-(Stuart)

well they all look better than our defense.

Sabres:
Myers-Leopold
Montador-Sekera
Butler-Weber
Rivet


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Jim Bob
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 8:09 am 
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X-pensfan wrote:
What do you guys think about Weber playing with Myers at even strength?


Asking Weber to play around 18 min ESTOI/G as a rookie is likely asking waaaay too much.

He's not in the class of Myers.

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NYIntensity
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 8:13 am 
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Jim Bob wrote:
X-pensfan wrote:
What do you guys think about Weber playing with Myers at even strength?


Asking Weber to play around 18 min ESTOI/G as a rookie is likely asking waaaay too much.

He's not in the class of Myers.


I'm pretty sure those pairings will juggle a little during game time anyways; Myers pushing a 1-1:30 shift while weber pushes :45-1:15 isn't out of the realm of possibility. It creates an overlap that would work and equate to numbers around what xpf said. That being said, I'm not sure I'd want those two on the ice together; not because I don't like either of them, but they're both still too green to be out there on their own. Myers is going to be 1/2 of our top pair; Weber doesn't fit that bill.

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X-pensfan
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 8:23 am 
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Salzig wrote:
I think our D is pretty weak. We have one "elite" defender (Myers has to prove that he belongs to the top group, sophomores tend to fall into a slump) and the rest is at most average. Just take a look at our division rivals and their defensive cores.


Habs:
Markov - Subban
Hamrlik - Spacek
Gill - Gorges
O'Byrne

Leafs:
Phaneuf - Schenn
Kaberle* - Komisarek
Beauchemin - Gunnarsson
Finger

Sens:
Gonchar - Karlsson
Philips - Lee
Kuba - Campoli
Cowen, Carkner

Bruins:
Chara-Boychuk
Hunwick-Seidenberg
Ference-(Stuart)

well they all look better than our defense.

Sabres:
Myers-Leopold
Montador-Sekera
Butler-Weber
Rivet



I don't know how, but Toronto looks to have the best D!

I'll take the Sabres D over Boston. Seidenberg is overrated. Now that he got his contract he wont sniff 175 shot blocks.

Habs are better even though they have snails back there like Gill and Hamrlik.

Sabres are better then the Sens too.


Would I rather they forked out an extra 1.5m for Volchenkov or an extra mil for Michalek? Yes, but they aren't bad at all.

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Jim Bob
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 8:59 am 
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X-pensfan wrote:
Would I rather they forked out an extra 1.5m for Volchenkov or an extra mil for Michalek? Yes, but they aren't bad at all.


The salary for Volchenkov wasn't a huge issue for me.

The 6 year deal is.

I think he's a guy who will fall apart within the next 2 or 3 years like McKee did in Pittsburgh.

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X-pensfan
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 9:12 am 
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Jim Bob wrote:
X-pensfan wrote:
Would I rather they forked out an extra 1.5m for Volchenkov or an extra mil for Michalek? Yes, but they aren't bad at all.


The salary for Volchenkov wasn't a huge issue for me.

The 6 year deal is.

I think he's a guy who will fall apart within the next 2 or 3 years like McKee did in Pittsburgh.



That's always a risk with a player that averages over 175 blocked shots a season and 160+ hits. But, he averages 70+ games a season of just under 19 minutes of hard ice time per game. There's never any safe bets with a 6 year contract but I would have paid it anyways and I would not be surprised if most NHL GMs felt the same way.

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Squanto
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 9:53 am 
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mechaphil wrote:
Weber isn't known so much for his fighting as he is for his rib-breaking clean, crushing hits (Always remember, Cory Stillman. Always remember).


To be fair, he did that once.


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PuckSniperPensel
PostPosted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 10:09 am 
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Gil is a good defenseman. I'm not sure why anyone would knock him.

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