Squanto wrote:
This all assumes that Weber will have similar numbers as a full time NHL defenseman. I think that's a stretch to just assume that will be true.
I agree that you can't just transpose stats from a minor league into the NHL.
I disagree that that is the entire basis for my argument since half of those stats are pulled from Weber's time with the Sabres. While a quarter season's worth of call-ups aren't necessarily an indicator of how a player will perform over the course of the season, they should give a good idea of that guy's ability to perform at an NHL level.
Looking at the stats with a level head and some distinctly anti-SBFian common sense, I really fail to see how 2g and 12a over a season from Mike Weber is a stretch, even if he plays on the third defensive pairing.
Consider Tallinder, Campbell, Kalinin, and Sekara, the four most recent defensemen brought up in the Sabres' system with significant AHL experience (Butler only played 27 games and Myers didn't play any):
Tallinder and Kalinin did not experience a dip in production in the NHL versus the previous year's AHL stats on a points per game basis.
Sekara and Campbell did.
Out of Tallinder, Lydman, Campbell, Kalinin, Sekera, and Butler, they produced between .275 (Sekera) and .356 (Butler) points per game. Even if Weber comes in at .25 ppg, below all six of those defensemen, he's still going to net 20-21 points.
I understand the need to be conservative, and the vast difference in playing at the AHL and NHL levels, but there is nothing historically to suggest that Weber is going to come in and suffer from a lack of production.