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Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think http://www.sabresjunkie.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2903	Page 1 of 4

Author:	powerplayer [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 2:44 am ]
Post subject:	Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
There is this consistant theory that people keep referencing where the playoffs are concerned: "In the playoffs, defense becomes much more aggressive" or "In the playoffs, offense-minded teams will have a tougher time". Can we finally dispell this myth? Maybe some teams TRY and lock it down, but the results say otherwise. I just looked over all the playoff stats/scores since the lockout and the scoresheet looks remarkably similar to regualr season numbers on a per game basis. There were plenty of higher scoring affairs. The way people talk, you'd think the playoffs would be filled with 1-goal games with scores of 1-0, 2-1 and the occasional 3-2. Nonsense. I saw many final scores with aggregate goals approaching or, in some cases, entering double digits. Yeah, there were plenty of tight ones too, just as there are throughout the regular season. The Sabres high-paid "snipers" better get their act together by next week and do what their paid to do, cause Miller and Tyler Myers aren't going to carry this team past a few of these conference opponents just on D. People dismiss the Caps chances because they have average goaltending. Well, their goaltending has picked up, but their incredible scoring ability has and will continue to compensate for that---even in the "defense-intensive" playoffs.

Author:	CriminallyVu1gar [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 8:02 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
Looking real briefly at the stats. 05-06 Sabres GF/game reg season - 3.42 GF/game playoffs - 3.33 06-07 Sabres GF/game reg season - 3.76 GF/game playoffs - 2.75 Both of those teams won a lot of games, so its safe tos ay they performed well in the playoffs. The statistics seem to support the statement that goals come harder in the playoffs. Edit: taking the genius down a notch so people can read it

Author:	Squanto [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 8:11 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
Last Season Regular season: DET 2.93 Goals/Game PIT 2.84 Goals/Game Playoffs: DET 2.09 Goals/Game PIT 2.46 Goals/Game I didn't check every team that made the playoffs, I might later. But, these numbers do support the idea that goal scoring in the playoffs goes down.

Author:	CriminallyVu1gar [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 8:16 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
And I believe the percentage of games that go to overtime goes up. It is truly one great crapshoot.

Author:	sabresrocker56 [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 3:27 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
You know, if someone where to find me GF/GA stats for playoff teams last year (Regular season and then post season) I might be able to actually prove whether or not goal scoring does decrease in the playoffs. I'm taking a Stats class right now and I could get extra credit out of this.

Author:	Squanto [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 3:29 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
sabresrocker56 wrote: You know, if someone where to find me GF/GA stats for playoff teams last year (Regular season and then post season) I might be able to actually prove whether or not goal scoring does decrease in the playoffs. I'm taking a Stats class right now and I could get extra credit out of this. All the reports you need are here: http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm#?n ... -sts-teams

Author:	Skyline_BNR34 [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 3:38 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
The games are tighter, and because 7 games where played with Pittsburgh and Washington the goal totals should like like a regular season game.

Author:	sabresrocker56 [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 3:51 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
If I just did everything correctly, then there is no evidence to suggest a significant difference in GF/G between the regular season and the playoffs. However, it was a fairly small sample (4 randomly selected teams). I may try a bigger sample.

Author:	Skyline_BNR34 [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 3:52 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
You need to do all 16 teams that made the playoffs. It's not as big of a difference as some make it out to be, but it's noticeable in some games.

Author:	Squanto [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 4:06 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
Code: 2008-2009 Playoffs Regular % Difference DET 3.30 3.52 -6.25% PIT 3.29 3.15 4.44% CHI 3.18 3.17 0.32% BOS 3.09 2.29 34.93% VAN 3.00 2.96 1.35% WAS 2.93 3.27 -10.40% ANA 2.69 2.90 -7.24% PHI 2.67 3.71 -28.03% CGY 2.67 3.06 -12.75% CAR 2.33 2.88 -19.10% NJD 2.14 2.90 -26.21% CBJ 1.75 2.68 -34.70% SJS 1.67 3.06 -45.42% NYR 1.57 2.44 -35.66% MTL 1.50 2.95 -49.15% STL 1.25 2.77 -54.87% Way more teams showed a decrease in goals per game than had an increase. MTL/STL/CBJ could be considered outliers since they only played 4 games.

Author:	sabresrocker56 [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 5:01 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
Skyline_BNR34 wrote: You need to do all 16 teams that made the playoffs. It's not as big of a difference as some make it out to be, but it's noticeable in some games. I wanted to get a representative sample, so I took one playoff team from each season since 05-06. I'm going to redo it going back to 98-99, maybe 2 or 3 teams from each season.

Author:	Skyline_BNR34 [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 5:16 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
sabresrocker56 wrote: Skyline_BNR34 wrote: You need to do all 16 teams that made the playoffs. It's not as big of a difference as some make it out to be, but it's noticeable in some games. I wanted to get a representative sample, so I took one playoff team from each season since 05-06. I'm going to redo it going back to 98-99, maybe 2 or 3 teams from each season. I thought you were talking about just in one year. What you should do is take the SC winner and runner up, or the four that made the ECF and WCF's since they have the most games played and would be the best sample to use.

Author:	CriminallyVu1gar [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 8:20 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
This is the third thread this guy has contributed in where the stats do not back up his argument.

Author:	patkane88 [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 11:14 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
I know this has nothing to do with the Sabres but this OHL series between Kitchener and London has not been defensive at all. Game 1 London wins 8-5 Game 2 Kitchener wins 5-2 (lowest scoring game so far) Game 3 London wins 6-3 Game 4 Kitchener wins 8-7 in OT Game 5 Kitchener wins 8-4 So yeah playoffs does not mean defense all the time.

Author:	Vanek_Fanatic_26 [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 11:26 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
patkane88 wrote: I know this has nothing to do with the Sabres but this OHL series between Kitchener and London has not been defensive at all. Game 1 London wins 8-5 Game 2 Kitchener wins 5-2 (lowest scoring game so far) Game 3 London wins 6-3 Game 4 Kitchener wins 8-7 in OT Game 5 Kitchener wins 8-4 So yeah playoffs does not mean defense all the time. NHL playoffs are a different kind of monster compared to minor league playoffs.

Author:	powerplayer [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 11:43 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
CriminallyVu1gar wrote: This is the third thread this guy has contributed in where the stats do not back up his argument. Oh really? Could it be instead that you just don't like my observations? My point is that the playoffs aren't that different than the regular season as far as scoring goes. Yes, scoring may be off a bit, but it's not this monumental difference that really changes the cup-contending reality for teams that simply aren't good enough (during the regular season) to beat teams that clearly are good enough. This all comes back to the spin that insists that the Caps aren't good enough, while this playoff-style difference favors the Sabres more. Nonsense. You need to play D and you need to freaking score, especially on the PP. No way around it. Sabres top 2 lines better get their shit together. Myers and Miller cannot do it alone.

Author:	sabresEH [ Fri Apr 09, 2010 11:49 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
this guy is a complete joke. Telling us to worry about rookie tenders. Saying defense doesn't get tougher come playoff time. We had arguably the best offensive team since the new millenium and did nothing come playoff time. Its nice to score goals(Washington) but if you can't stop you will not win the cup(Washington).

Author:	Sabresfansince1980 [ Sat Apr 10, 2010 12:02 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
This is all a bunch of hair splitting for no good reason. Washington is not a powerhouse, but they are still the favorite in the East. No other eastern team has been good enough or consistent enough to be a favorite against Washington. It's that simple. Most teams will try to lock down defensively as usual, but that doesn't mean they can lock down Washington and also outscore them. Being the favorite only means so much, because they still have to play the games, but there's no reason to call any team a favorite over Washington. As for rookie goalies EH, it's not all about Rask or Elliott, it's about Buffalo playing poorly against those teams and also not scoring much on those goalies. Will Boston or Ottawa start to play less physical and disciplined hockey in the playoffs? No. Those goalies have d-support and are good enough to have had success against Buffalo. What's Buffalo going to do differently in the playoffs that they didn't feel like doing in the reg. season? I still think Buffalo is the favorite over Boston, but it would be far from easy. Ottawa...uh...

Author:	sabresEH [ Sat Apr 10, 2010 12:10 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
Whatever I'm not worried about this team in a seven game series. As long as we keep our feet moving it won't matter about the team in front it will matter about the one guy behind them. It always does come playoff time.

Author:	powerplayer [ Sat Apr 10, 2010 12:36 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Playoffs NOT as Defensive as you think
sabresEH wrote: this guy is a complete joke. Telling us to worry about rookie tenders. Saying defense doesn't get tougher come playoff time. We had arguably the best offensive team since the new millenium and did nothing come playoff time. Its nice to score goals(Washington) but if you can't stop you will not win the cup(Washington). The joker is the one who writes off a goaltender because he doesn't have much (or even any) playoff experience. Hey joker, it's STILL hockey. You think the Sabres are going to be much more talented against the same guy just because it's the post-season? Really? Where's all that championship-quality-d and firepower gonna come from, Mars? Get a clue.

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