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Squanto
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 2:49 pm 
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The same argument was made about the first iPhone. Everyone said it would fail because Apple didn't put a 3G radio in it, even though AT&T did have 3G coverage in about half their footprint. Granted sales didn't take off until the 3G model came out, but it didn't fail.

They aren't going to want to sell a phone that people can't use. A LTE model this summer is unusable by all of AT&T and half of Verizon. They'll wait for more penetration before they release it.


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PuckSniperPensel
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 2:51 pm 
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Squanto wrote:
'Design compromise' doesn't necessarily mean visual appearance. The first gen LTE radios are probably battery whores, just like the first gen 3G radios were.

LTE covers 1/3 of Verizon customers in the nation. It does not cover any AT&T customers, and won't until next year.

Apple will go out of their way to not fragment the shit out of the iPhone manufacturing process. They'll test some LTE models on Verizon, probably already are, but they won't release one until the technology has more adoption.

Exhibit A : iPhone 1


Apple will offer LTE. Power consumption doesn't bother them if they can deactivate features to allow them to boast about hours of uptime.

When the iPhone 3G came out, a big highlighted feature of that phone was the ability to deactivate 3G in the interest of saving battery life. I expect more of the same for the LTE iPhone.

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Crosscheck
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 2:51 pm 
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PuckSniperPensel wrote:
You'll see. By the end of 2011.

$20 says Apple does not have 52% of handheld market share by the end of 2011.

Let's see how crazy you are ;)

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Squanto
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 2:52 pm 
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PuckSniperPensel wrote:
Apple will offer LTE. Power consumption doesn't bother them if they can deactivate features to allow them to boast about hours of uptime.

When the iPhone 3G came out, a big highlighted feature of that phone was the ability to deactivate 3G in the interest of saving battery life. I expect more of the same for the LTE iPhone.


I'm not saying Apple won't offer LTE. I'm saying I highly doubt they do in the iPhone 5.


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ironyisadeadscene
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 2:56 pm 
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Squanto wrote:
The same argument was made about the first iPhone. Everyone said it would fail because Apple didn't put a 3G radio in it, even though AT&T did have 3G coverage in about half their footprint. Granted sales didn't take off until the 3G model came out, but it didn't fail.

They aren't going to want to sell a phone that people can't use. A LTE model this summer is unusable by all of AT&T and half of Verizon. They'll wait for more penetration before they release it.


now, when you say unusable, you mean with LTE, right? not as in, it wont work with 3g radio, right?

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Squanto
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:06 pm 
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Yes. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

It goes to how Apple cherishes the user experience. When they release a 4G phone, they're going to market the shit out of it as 4G, fastest 4G phone out there, blah blah Steve Jobs BOOM. They won't do that if only it's 4G usefulness was limited.

Consider this. If they release a 4G iPhone in July, how many AT&T sales are they going to get? How many worldwide sales on non-LTE networks are they going to get? Zilch. If I'm an existing AT&T iPhone 4 user, what incentive do I have to buy the new phone if it's 4G? It has to have something else compelling to get me to buy it.

If I'm a Verizon user, in a 4G area, I would probably buy it. However, the first batch of VZ users who want it will already have it, and only half of Verizon's network will even be LTE by then, limiting it's reach that much more.


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PuckSniperPensel
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:11 pm 
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Squanto wrote:
PuckSniperPensel wrote:
Apple will offer LTE. Power consumption doesn't bother them if they can deactivate features to allow them to boast about hours of uptime.

When the iPhone 3G came out, a big highlighted feature of that phone was the ability to deactivate 3G in the interest of saving battery life. I expect more of the same for the LTE iPhone.


I'm not saying Apple won't offer LTE. I'm saying I highly doubt they do in the iPhone 5.


Oh I know that. I'm saying I think they will in the iPhone 5.

They didn't use it in iPhone 4 because then they'd have to give away their awesome new design for the iPhone 5 before June rolls around. They don't like to do stuff like that.

Plus, they've had the iPhone 4 with a verizon chip in it for quite some time now.

Crosscheck, you're on. :D

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ironyisadeadscene
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:13 pm 
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Squanto wrote:
Yes. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

It goes to how Apple cherishes the user experience. When they release a 4G phone, they're going to market the shit out of it as 4G, fastest 4G phone out there, blah blah Steve Jobs BOOM. They won't do that if only it's 4G usefulness was limited.

Consider this. If they release a 4G iPhone in July, how many AT&T sales are they going to get? How many worldwide sales on non-LTE networks are they going to get? Zilch. If I'm an existing AT&T iPhone 4 user, what incentive do I have to buy the new phone if it's 4G? It has to have something else compelling to get me to buy it.

If I'm a Verizon user, in a 4G area, I would probably buy it. However, the first batch of VZ users who want it will already have it, and only half of Verizon's network will even be LTE by then, limiting it's reach that much more.


i just feel like, if the iphone 6 or whatever its called, the big selling point is its 4g.... by then android phones will have evolved even further, thus leaving apples iphone in the dust.

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ironyisadeadscene
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:19 pm 
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Crosscheck wrote:
PuckSniperPensel wrote:


Quote:
The study found that nearly a third of consumers are very likely or somewhat likely to purchase an iPhone if it is
made available to Verizon


Yeah, I'm going to have to go ahead and call bullshit on that.
Asserting their market share is going to go from 19% to potentially 52% (19% + 33%) because their device is available on an alternate network is ludicrous.


19 to 52? is that even mathematically possible? does verizon even hold 33% of cell users market share? wouldnt that mean almost every single verizon user would have to get an iphone?

not a fucking chance. you may see a jump to 25%.. but 52%??? pass that bong over here. youve had enough.

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Squanto
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:21 pm 
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Android phones are evolving....in about 100 different directions.

Unless carriers stop crippling features and loading bloatware on top of stock Android, it's going to evolve into nothing more than another generic phone OS.


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PuckSniperPensel
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:30 pm 
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ironyisadeadscene wrote:
Crosscheck wrote:
PuckSniperPensel wrote:


Quote:
The study found that nearly a third of consumers are very likely or somewhat likely to purchase an iPhone if it is
made available to Verizon


Yeah, I'm going to have to go ahead and call bullshit on that.
Asserting their market share is going to go from 19% to potentially 52% (19% + 33%) because their device is available on an alternate network is ludicrous.


19 to 52? is that even mathematically possible? does verizon even hold 33% of cell users market share? wouldnt that mean almost every single verizon user would have to get an iphone?

not a fucking chance. you may see a jump to 25%.. but 52%??? pass that bong over here. youve had enough.


That's smartphone marketshare.... not total marketshare. Subscribers will also be jumping from other providers to Verizon. They projected 25% of Sprint and 25% of T Mobile customers would jump to Verizon to buy an iPhone if it were released.

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patkane88
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:43 pm 
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Why would verizon not wait until the new iPhone comes out in the summer??

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Crosscheck
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:53 pm 
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PuckSniperPensel wrote:
. They projected 25% of Sprint and 25% of T Mobile customers would jump to Verizon to buy an iPhone if it were released.

That also sounds highly unlikely to put it mildly.

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Crosscheck
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:53 pm 
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patkane88 wrote:
Why would verizon not wait until the new iPhone comes out in the summer??

because there's demand now...and there will be new demand then.
Double dip.

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mechaphil
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:54 pm 
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What interests me is VZW's bloatware will be nowhere to be found on the Verizon iPhone. I HAAAAAAAAAAAATE bloatware.

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Squanto
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:54 pm 
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PuckSniperPensel wrote:
They projected 25% of Sprint and 25% of T Mobile customers would jump to Verizon to buy an iPhone if it were released.


These are the same analysts that predicted the iPad was going to be a failure, and that Verizon was going to have the iPhone two years ago.

Why would all these T Mobile people jump now? If they wanted an iPhone they would have just gotten one from AT&T.


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PuckSniperPensel
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:55 pm 
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Crosscheck wrote:
PuckSniperPensel wrote:
. They projected 25% of Sprint and 25% of T Mobile customers would jump to Verizon to buy an iPhone if it were released.

That also sounds highly unlikely to put it mildly.


People flip phones like candy.

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Squanto
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 3:58 pm 
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People used to flip phones like candy.

Nowadays they don't like to shell out $200 for a new phone plus $200 on an ETF.


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ironyisadeadscene
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 4:00 pm 
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i like to think i have some phone knowledge, but what is bloatware?

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Squanto
PostPosted: Tue Jan 11, 2011 4:02 pm 
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ironyisadeadscene wrote:
i like to think i have some phone knowledge, but what is bloatware?


Pre-loaded applications that you don't want and are generally difficult to remove.


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