Stuuuuuuu wrote:
MsRussellBeebe wrote:
The Virgin Islands are 18*W 64 minutes north latitude, while the French West Indies (slightly SE) are at about 17*W 59 minutes north latitude. Very close to the equator, so remains tropical year-round. The "Christmas Winds" kick up late Nov/early Dec and blow til April, which makes it seem cold to the locals (70-75* at night--brrr!) and about 82-85 during the day. Very little dusk as you are so close to the equator, so it's light, then it's dark very quickly. Days are slightly shorter in winter, but not by much for the same reason cited above.
I sailed/boated a lot as a professional captain/dive instructor there, so I had to pay attention to the weather and my bearings at sea. Not like there are route numbers or street signs.
My finacee (there I need the accent again) and I want to go to Martinique for our honeymoon. That would be in late August, and she and I are a little bothered by the information that this is "rainy season", but being from Portland, rain isn't that much of a fear. The real fear is that it's hurricane season. Any advice?
As I said in my previous post, the most active part of hurricane season is late August to mid-September. El Nino often plays a role in a more active hurricane season because it brings warmer waters which are essential to hurricane strength. The Caribbean is currently in one of the most active eras in the last 50 years. Dr. Gray from Colorado University sets his predictions in the beginning of the year for how many hurricanes vs. how many devastating hurricanes. Usually 4 big hurricanes per year are predicted. He periodically revises the forecast based on prevailing conditions the closer we get to hurricane season (June 1-November 30). Hurricanes typically do not form below the 11th parallel. Martinique is about 14*W, 40*N, which puts it just above the 11th parallel. That being said, there are exceptions to the rule.
Generally speaking, the lower the parallel when it becomes a named storm, the better the chances of hurricane formation, and with plenty of punch due to traveling a great distance over warm, open ocean. You usually have 4-5 days to prepare for hunkering down to ride out the storm, with many "hurricane supplies" selling out in the panic shopping binge-usually bottled water, batteries, flashlights, various paper goods, propane, tie-downs for potential projectile objects, plywood for boarding up windows, etc.
Well, as far as hurricanes, depends on your personal preference, I guess. Being on an island vs. a hurricane on the mainland drastically reduces your evacuation options. On the mainland, you can get in your car and drive a "hurricane evacuation route" which is clearly marked on the East Coast, normally heading inland. When you're on an island, you have to consider what the forecast is as far as strength when it is predicted to make landfall where you are.
Or you can choose to leave island, cutting your vacation short. The "cone of probability" is something to watch. This is the area extending outward from the storm , which forms a cone. The widest part of the cone is further from the hurricane. The further away from the storm, the more uncertain of it's track. If your island is in the path of probability, it is assigned a percentage of probability of a direct hit. The storm could track north or south of where you are depending on the jet stream and steering currents of the wind. Winds aloft can also have an effect on the storm, which can "shear" the top of it away, thereby weakening the storm. If you choose to leave the island, don't wait.
The airport usually closes 24-36 hours before the storm arrives. If you make the decision to leave based on the forecast where there's a probable direct hit (the eye passes directly over, or you are close to the eye where the center is tight and the winds are strongest), it's usually too late. You'll have to ride it out. If it's a cat 1 or 2, you're going to experience winds from 75mph-125 or so. Damage will be minimal, depending on building codes. Martinique (when I was there in 1990) was fairly impoverished once I was outside the resort, so you will find not-so-sturdy building construction, shacks, and the like. The hotels/resorts cater to tourists so they will be of a more sturdy construction and weather it with minimal damage, possible flooding and sometimes a tornado or two can be spawned. Waterspouts are not uncommon, but don't come ashore very often. Many islands shut down power plants as a precaution to prevent electrocution with downed power lines, etc. That usually happens 18 hours before a storm (give or take). Most, if not all, hotels/resorts have generators and have their own desalinization plants for production of fresh water. Depending on the level of tourist activity and building codes on the island you visit. There is no "city water", so they depend on rain water to fill cisterns and desal plants which produce water for their own facility.
Cat 3 are winds around 125-135 mph, which is capable of causing some real damage. A Cat 4-5-get the f*ck out. Major catastrophic damage. 140-155 mph and up in wind velocity. Hurricanes require warm water and unimpeded progress over long distances to maintain wind speed. As it comes ashore, tends to weaken. This is not always the case on an island, due to the fact the storm circumference is usually much, much larger than the island it's passing over.
The main concerns for hurricanes are evacuation and what you're willing to put up with should it be a major hurricane. You'll have to wait for airport to reopen and an available flight to get out, which could take up to a week, depending on the damage to the infrastructure.
I've ridden out about 8 hurricanes in my time, never chose to evacuate, and always lived in a place of stone/concrete construction with shutters that will withstand winds of Hurricane Andrew strength (Cat 4, unofficially, it was really a Cat 5). The designation may have since been changed to allow for more Federal Aid to rebuild the area since then. I seem to recall reading something to that extent. Hurricane Marilyn in 1995 was a Category 4/5 and the eye passed directly over St. Thomas. Hurricane Hugo in 1989 was also a Cat 4/5 and raked St. Croix, with the eye passing directly over it. Hurricane Hugo then made landfall on the mainland as a Cat 4 on Isle Of Palms (I lived there for awhile, also), which is the third barrier island off South Carolina's Charleston area.
I guess it's a crap shot and what you're willing to risk. The howling winds and driving rains and the noise of objects being flung about by the wind can be nerve-wracking to say the least.
Tropical "waves" are more prevalent that time of year, which are tropical systems that are rainmakers and stir up the seas with winds that can blow up to 40-50kts with gusts that are near hurricane force. Waves are sizable on the windward side of the island. Usually the North side faces to weather (facing the Atlantic in winter) and the South side of the island in summertime as the weather patterns originate from the SE, coming off the West Coast of Africa some 1500 miles east of the Caribbean island chain.
There ya go---everything you never wanted to know about hurricane season in the Caribbean. I hope this helps. Feel free to respond here or PM me if you have any more questions or want further clarification.
(Sorry for hijacking your thread, ETC).
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