It's dangerous to go alone - take this!

Part One - Back-Up Goalie
With free agency beginning on Thursday, I’ll be penning a series of posts analyzing what the Sabres’ UFA and RFA options might be at each position that’ll run from today through Wednesday. My opening entry will focus on finding Ryan Miller a new best friend and back-up for the 2010-2011 season and maybe beyond.
*All three entries will have data powered by Cap Geek and Hockey DB.

A couple of decisions can be made right now regarding looking for a possible back-up for Ryan Miller: No RFAs will be considered by Darcy and neither will any goaltender paid over $2M last season. If you factor in veteran status, there are five goaltenders that immediately appear on the radar: Johan Hedberg, Dan Ellis, Marty Biron, Alex Auld, and the retention of Patrick Lalime.

Johan Hedberg
Born May 5 1973 — Leksand, Sweden
Height 5.11 — Weight 180 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Salary: $1.0875M
Pros: Good goaltender, plays well from the back-up position, great in shootouts, has awesome nickname (Moose).
Cons: Playing for a terrible Atlanta team for the last four years has probably worn him right out, age is getting up there for a hockey player (37).

Dan Ellis
Born Jun 19 1980 — Saskatoon, SASK
Height 6.00 — Weight 193 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Salary: $2M
Pros: Talented goaltender, spent time with the excellent goaltending system in Nashville, relatively young for a veteran.
Cons: Will be courted to play as a starter, most likely.

Marty Biron
Born Aug 15 1977 — Lac St. Charles, PQ
Height 6.03 — Weight 180 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Salary: $1.4M
Pros: Knows Sabres goaltending coach Jim Corsi’s systems, instills confidence in Lindy Ruff regarding using his back-up, fantastic locker-room guy.
Cons: May still be entertaining thoughts of being a starting goaltender, charms the pants of every woman that sees his eyes.

Alex Auld
Born Jan 7 1981 — Cold Lake, ALTA
Height 6.05 — Weight 221 — Shoots R
2009/2010 Salary: $1M
Pros: Solid if not flashy, youngest of all five possibilities, performs well regardless of talent in front of him.
Cons: Might want to test his chances on the market to get signed as a starter.

Patrick Lalime
Born Jul 7 1974 — St. Bonaventure, PQ
Height 6.03 — Weight 189 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Salary: $1M
Pros: Knows the Sabres’ goaltending systems already, knows his teammates already, can play well with a string of starts.
Cons: Also getting up there in age (36), over-commits and doesn’t have the youth left to fix himself, Sabres haven’t extended a back-up goaltender since Biron left.

When you analyze the stats, salaries, and facts, all signs point to one Martin Gaston Biron coming back “home” to play for the Buffalo Sabres. My reasoning (and also my friend Jay’s) is that an intangible he brings that no other goaltender does is the ability to earn Lindy Ruff’s trust to start him more often, keeping Miller rested. Let it be known that I am not on the Biron bandwagon (my personal choices would be Hedberg or Ellis), but it is impossible to argue what he would bring to this squad.

Part Two - Defensemen
This is part two of my three-part series on the impending start of free agency which started yesterday with a look at back-up goaltending possibilities. Today’s installment will focus on finding replacements for the imminently-departing Henrik Tallinder and Tonza Lydman while trying to solve the team’s dearth at PP QB.
*This write-up contains data procured from Cap Geek and Hockey DB.

Before I go any further, let it be known that I suffer no delusions about Darcy scoring a talented RFA with an offer sheet. It’s not in his nature and he’s been burned by them in the past (coughKEVINLOWEcough). With that being said, let’s have a little fun with this.

The Sabres will have five defensemen under contract going in to the 2010/2011 season: Tyler Myers, Craig Rivet, Chris Butler, Steve Montador, and Andrej Sekera. Toni Lydman and Henrik Tallinder are both UFA while Mike Weber and Marc-Andre Gragnani are both RFA. I fully expect both Weber and Gragnani will re-sign with the Sabres, but depending on how free agency goes, neither may even make the big club. Something inside me says it’s Weber’s time but we shall see. For the sake of simplicity, let’s move forward with this post assuming that the five under contract remain in place. Rivet, of course, will miss some time due to recovery from his shoulder surgery, leaving two open spots on the roster for opening day with Weber or Gragnani filling the 7th defenseman spot. Let’s have a look at two RFAs (again, highly unlikely but you never know) and five UFAs.

RFAs
Marc Staal
Born Jan 13 1987 — Thunder Bay, ONT
Height 6.04 — Weight 209 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Average TOI: 23:07 per game 2009/2010 Salary: $765K
Pros: Big, mobile, smooth skater, minutes-eater, LHD, young, defensive defenseman would compliment Myers’ playing style.
Cons: Would need either an offer sheet or a huge trade package for his rights, likely to command $4M-$5M during free agency if Sather fails to sign him.

Niklas Hjalmarsson
Born Jun 6 1987 — Eksjo, Sweden
Height 6.03 — Weight 205 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Average TOI: 19:39 per game 2009/2010 Salary: $666K (ahemAWESOME)
Pros: Big, zippy, would play big minutes on any team not stocked with Keith and Seabrook, young, would compliment Myers’ playing style.
Cons: Chicago considers him possibly untouchable, would need offer sheet or huge trade package for his rights, likely to command $3M-$4.5M in free agency if Bowman fails to sign him.

UFAs
Paul Martin
Born Mar 5 1981 — Minneapolis, MN
Height 6.01 — Weight 190 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Average TOI: 22:30 per game 2009/2010 Salary: $4.5M
Pros: Fairly young, plays a responsible game despite offensive prowess, would compliment the PP, has never played less than 70 games a season in the NHL (besides last season when he broke his arm).
Cons: Rumored to be expecting $5.5M.

Michalek Zbynek
Born Dec 23 1982 — Jindrichuv Hradec, Czech Rep.
Height 6.02 — Weight 210 — Shoots R
2009/2010 Average TOI: 22:38 per game 2009/2010 Salary: $1.5M
Pros: A defensive defenseman’s defensive defenseman, shot blocking machine, responsible with the puck.
Cons: Looking at a significant raise (rumored to be to the tune of $4M/4Y), Sabres have enough RHD on the club already.

Marc-Andre Bergeron
Born Oct 13 1980 — Trois-Rivieres, PQ
Height 5.10 — Weight 197 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Average TOI: 15:03 per game 2009/2010 Salary: $750K
Pros: One of the league’s foremost PP QBs, would come relatively cheap ($1.8M-2.5M?), hard shot would benefit Vanek and Goose at all times.
Cons: Defensively irresponsible.

Anton Volchenkov
Born Feb 25 1982 — Moscow, Russia
Height 6.01 — Weight 227 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Average TOI: 20:41 per game 2009/2010 Salary: $3.2M
Pros: Defensive defenseman, league leader in blocked shots, has reputation working for him.
Cons: Likes to throw elbows, looking for a raise that puts his salary north of $4M reportedly, basically the same player as Lydman.

Sergei Gonchar
Born Apr 13 1974 — Chelyabinsk, Russia
Height 6.02 — Weight 212 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Average TOI: 24:23 per game 2009/2010 Salary: $5.5M
Pros: A top-three PP QB in this league, hard shot, strong puck-rushing defenseman.
Cons: Aging, reportedly wants a 3-year deal at $5M, developed a negative reputation after poor showing in game seven against MTL in 2009/2010 Stanley Cup playoffs.

This could go a lot of ways. One option is for Darcy to offer sheet Marc Staal and sign MA Bergeron to play PP QB on the opposite unit as Tyler Myers. Another is to go with Sergei Gonchar as PP QB, which gives Mike Weber his chance in the NHL due to Gonchar’s high price-point. A third is giving Anton Volchenkov or Zbynek Michalek a big deal and then promoting MA Gragnani to play PP QB. Yet another way to go, a fourth even, is to go with Paul Martin and keep Toni Lydman for a bit of a discount. A fifth option (we’re getting close to the end) is to offer sheet Nik Hjalmarsson and try to retain Hank Tallinder for a discount. A sixth (and the cheapest) option would be to plug both Weber and Gragnani into the starting line-up. Lastly, the Sabres could just stand pat with both previous defenseman and return the exact same defense corps.

What I can see being the three most-likely avenues the Sabres would take are the Volchenkov/Michalek and Gragnani option, the Gonchar and Weber direction, and then the Weber and Gragnani situation. On the flip side, what I would hope for most is the Staal and Bergeron option. That one makes the most sense to me even if it’s the least realistic – a Staal-Myers pairing would take care of the first pair for a decade and Bergeron could be signed for only a couple of years until Nick Crawford is ready to take over as PP QB. But I would almost put money on the Gonchar and Weber idea – Weber has been groomed to be a meaner Jay McKee-type and Gonchar would give the Sabres a pre-eminent PP QB for three years. But given Darcy’s proclivities, who knows what’s going to happen on Thursday or beyond.

Part Three - Forwards
Here is the conclusion to my three-part series focusing on the Sabres’ possible options in free agency. Part one posted Monday focused on getting a new back-up for Miller whereas part two published yesterday set about finding some new blueliners for the fold. Today’s installment brings it all together by shaking up the forward ranks through a number of means – ditching players under contract, bringing in veteran warriors, and maybe even tossing a couple of offer sheets around.
*Today’s final edition features data gleaned from Cap Geek and Hockey DB, with an assist from NHL Numbers.

In my previous two posts I dealt with filling positions strictly through signing free agents, but if the Sabres are to re-build their forward corps it’s going to take some wheeling and dealing. First, I wanna prepare a preliminary forward roster. Let’s go ahead and pencil in Patrick Kaleta for 2010/2011 (there’s no way he goes anywhere else, but it does pique my interest that Darcy has yet to re-sign him). Connolly and Roy won’t be going anywhere per Darcy’s admission, so they stay put. Vanek, Pominville, Hecht, and Gaustad all have contracts that make them untradeable. Grier just got re-signed and he’s wunderbar, so he ain’t goin anywhere. Finally, Ennis proved himself to be too valuable to send back to Portland, so he’s earned his spot with the big club. I’m gonna let Kennedy get picked away by an offer sheet and send Gerbe and Stafford to squads for picks. That leaves:

Vanek-Roy-XXXXX
Hecht-Connolly-Pominville
Ennis-XXXXX-Grier
XXXXX-Goose-Kaleta

This leaves the Sabres with holes at 4th line LW, 3rd line C, and a RW for line 1A (for all intents and purposes, VR?? and HCP are lines 1A and 1B). Let’s get to work, shall we?

RW For Line 1A
RFA
Bobby Ryan
Born Mar 17 1987 — Cherry Hill, NJ
Height 6.02 — Weight 218 — Shoots R
2009/2010 Production: 35g+29a 2009/2010 Salary: $1.865M (includes bonuses)
Pros: Big kid, plays bigger, two consecutive 30g season, could be franchise RW, would unlock Roy and Vanek’s true potential possibly.
Cons: Expensive taste (turned down 5yr/$20M deal from ANA), everyone wants a piece of Bobby Ryan, Darcy doesn’t deal in RFA offer sheets ever.

UFAs
Lee Stempniak
Born Feb 4 1983 — West Seneca, NY
Height 5.11 — Weight 202 — Shoots R
2009/2010 Production: 28g+20a 2009/2010 Salary: $3.5M
Pros: Versatile (plays both wings equally well), can go on dominating streaks.
Cons: Inconsistent, can go on invisible streaks, has yet to play with true top-line talent.

Bill Guerin
Born Nov 9 1970 — Wilbraham, MA
Height 6.02 — Weight 220
2009/2010 Production: 21g+24a 2009/2010 Salary: $2M
Pros: Veteran warrior, brings leadership, clutch guy, still going strong at 39, can still handle top-line minutes
Cons: Likely to re-sign in Pittsburgh

I’d be remiss and rather angry if Drew Stafford were still a Sabre in 2010/2011. I know he’ll walk following the upcoming season, but I want him gone now. Darcy doesn’t have many RWers to pick from this free agency, but there are a few options as listed above. Bobby Ryan is clearly the cream of this year’s RW crop, but he’s an RFA and Darcy doesn’t deal in them (considers them dishonorable). He’s my miracle choice which means it won’t happen. But Stempniak and Guerin are both solid choices on the wing, especially Guerin. He’s like Doug Weight or Mark Recchi were to Carolina in 2006 – that wily veteran who put a team over the top, as he proved in 2009 with his Penguins. With a previous year’s salary of $2M, he’s definitely within reach and would be a great option to play with Vanek and Roy on 1A. Whereas Stempniak, while talented and capable of going on point streaks, is maddeningly inconsistent in his own right.

C For 3rd Line
UFA
Mike Modano
Born Jun 7 1970 — Livonia, MI
Height 6.03 — Weight 212 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Production: 14g+16a 2009/2010 Salary: $2.25M
Pros: Great leader and mentor, can still produce in right role, plays all aspects of the game, is pretty cheap for what he brings.
Cons: Most likely to sign in either Minnesota or Detroit (my personal opinion).

John Madden
Born May 4 1973 — Barrie, ONT
Height 5.11 — Weight 190 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Production: 10g+13a 2009/2010 Salary: $2.75M
Pros: Cup-winning experience, leadership, strong hitter for his size, unlikely to re-sign in Chicago.
Cons: Primarily excels at PK (Sabres are already a prolific PK team), production isn’t what it used to be.

Matthew Lombardi
Born Mar 18 1982 — Montreal, PQ
Height 5.11 — Weight 191 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Production: 19g+34a 2009/2010 Salary: $2.35M
Pros: Productive center, still relatively young, can play any amount of minutes.
Cons: Probably looking for a big raise after a productive season.

Let’s call an apple an apple here and not an apple an orange – Paul Gaustad is a glorified 4th line center playing on and off the third line. For the sake of cohesion, I’m thinking he oughta take over at 4th line center where he can go back to kicking a**es and taking names. To fill the vacancy at third line center, I’ve picked out a defensive center in Madden, an offensive center in Lombardi, and the best of both worlds in Modano (all of which made roughly the same money last season). Modano would be my personal pick, as he brings scoring, defensive responsibility, and sage mentoring to the youngins all in one package. However, my personal feelings tell me he’ll finish his career in Minnesota (where it started) or in Detroit (where he’s from). Lombardi would bring a scoring touch which would take advantage of Ennis’ natural abilities and help bolster Grier’s numbers, but he’s likely seeking a raise and a long deal. Madden, however, seems to be the best fit. He’s defensive, which meshes well with Grier, but can show flashes of scoring ability, which would be augmented by Ennis’ playmaking. He also brings the leadership and experience that winning a Cup can only bring.

LW For 4th Line
UFAs
Brad Winchester
Born Mar 1 1981 — Madison, WI
Height 6.05 — Weight 215 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Production: 3g+5a, 108PIMS 2009/2010 Salary: $800K
Pros: Huge, imposing, could put up 15 points on the 4th line, kicks a**.
Cons: Uhm, as a fourth liner, none really.

Eric Nystrom
Born Feb 14 1983 — Syosset, NY
Height 6.01 — Weight 195 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Production: 11g+8a, 54PIMS 2009/2010 Salary: $687.5K
Pros: Brings an offensive game for a bottom six forward.
Cons: A little light on the PIMS as a 4th liner.

Matt Ellis
Born Aug 31 1981 — Welland, ONT
Height 6.01 — Weight 210 — Shoots L
2009/2010 Production: 3g+10a, 12PIMS 2009/2010 Salary: $500K
Pros: Defensively proficient, grinds with the best of ‘em, excellent puck protection.
Cons: Does not offer a scoring or intimidation threat on any line.

With Goose’s defensive responsibility and faceoff prowess and Kaleta’s big hits and back-checking proclivities, what kind of LW is plugged in can change the dynamic of the line. Winchester’s presence would give the Sabres a goon squad capable of throwing punches with anyone. Adding Nystrom could aid Kaleta in making scoring opportunities from unexpected players. Retaining Ellis would turn the 4th line into a pre-eminent grinding/puck protection line with very few defensive lapses. Honestly, the cheapest addition to the team could be the hardest to pin down as there are no bad additions to the 4th line unless Darcy hires a hugger like Boogaard, Laraque, or *shudder* Peters.

There is an interesting option to be considered, which is putting together an Ennis/Roy/Vanek line and then putting the newly-signed Lee Stempniak on the third line at LW. Just another possibility.

The hockey holiday that is Free Agency Day is tomorrow, and who the hell knows what Darcy is gonna do except the man himself. Here’s hoping for some pleasant surprises.

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mechaphil

It sucks. Because you didn't post the text, and are shamelessly promoting your blog.

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If I posted my text, it's be a veritable WALL of words

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mechaphil

It's a pretty fine line Phil. The rules say we don't care if you link to your stuff in your sig, or on occasion when it's relevant to a topic being discussed. Creating a thread strictly for the purposes of linking back to posts is a bit over the line I think.

If we let you do it, then we have to let everyone do it. We need to be consistent in applying the same rules to everyone, so I'm going to have to edit your post with a funny picture.

Time to post walls of text then

Can't say I didn't warn you

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mechaphil

I like it, but I think you are overestimating what Regier will do:

Back up goalie:

I think the guys you listed will go for more than what Regier will spend on a back up. At the end of the day, I expect them to sign a low end vet that will accept a two way deal with the chance to compete with Enroth for the back up job.

Forwards:

I think Stafford will be back and the only forward changes will be on the 4th line. Again, nothing expensive and no real big names added. The biggest splash might be a Mike Grier-type (John Madden perhaps........)

Defense:

This is where it gets interesting.

I think that Tallinder & Lydman leave and Weber gets a full time gig.

That gives one slot to fill. While it's nice to dream about Tomas Kaberle, Marc Staal and Paul Martin, my guess is that at the end of the day it might be a roll of the dice on a guy like Willie Mitchell coming off of a concussion or maybe Pavel Kubina if they offer him more years than other teams that will likely give up more per year.

But, we shall see.

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Sabres Hockey: Commitment to Mediocrity

If Matthew Lombardi would accept a deal to come here without getting a huge raise, I'd kill for him on our third line, but yea I think Madden is who the Sabres will go after.

I'm wary about Pavel Kubina - I'd much rather have Carlo Colaiacovo than Kubina.

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mechaphil

I wouldn't mind Matthew Lombardi at all as he's a great skater who is super fast that has some nice skill.

I just hope Darcy will sign two guys and not no garbage.

Oh, and JB - it's not what I think Darcy will do...it's just me listing what options he has available. It's impossible to predict his moves.

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mechaphil

It's impossible to predict his moves? Are you kidding the guy doesn't hardly make any!

All I ask is for him to change his ways and do something to better the team(And I'm not talking 2nd or 3rd tier unrestricted free agents) especially since Boston and Montreal are making moves to improve their teams. I think Boston got better but Montreal I'm not so sure yet.

He makes moves. He just doesn't make the moves YOU want him to make.

Oh you mean he trades away future high draft picks for a player that stays a month who sucks! yeah those are great moves. Sorry, but the players he traded for are leftover garbage that the Sabres hope they can turn for the better. How about trading away picks that aren't rental's? This team can't afford to toss away picks for players that stay a month and I know I'm not the only one that thinks like this. Wouldn't that make more sense but then again we are talking about Darcy!

I'm gonna refer to you as polly-one-note from now on.

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So, right up front, I hate everything about the way you post, SabresBillsFan. That being said, I'm pretty sick of trading away picks for rentals too.

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I'm sure alot of people hate the way I post but I'm not a fan of Darcy anymore or the current management. Their is no reason with the fanbase the way it is that they should settle for mediocre. It's not like their not making money. It all started when Briere and Drury were let go for nothing. They had a great team in place and management pissed it all away. Instead of taking the necessary step to get better they took too many steps back.

All I ask is for them to win the cup during my lifetime. I have been following this team since the early 80's and have some great players here but they just can't to seem to put it all together and get it right.

The Sabres AREN'T making money. In 2007 after the ECF flame-out against the Sens when the salary cap was still $53M?, Larry Quinn gave an interview in which he said the Sabres do not make money unless the team can get out of the first round and that they barely break even unless they merely make the playoffs. Since then the salary cap has gone up $6M and the Sabres have yet to advance further than the first round. Post lockout, that's two seasons of making money followed by three seasons of losing money, with the salary cap rising all the while which forces the team to spend more.

Oh, and you have shit grammar. Learn the difference between they're/their/there.

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mechaphil

-Matt Barnaby traded to the Pitt Penguins for Stu Barnes

Wow. That was a terrible deal. An agitator for a captain.

-Mike Wilson traded to Florida for Rhett Warrener and a 1999 5th round draft pick (Ryan Miller)

Nuff said.

-Alexei Tezikov traded to Washington for Joe Juneau and a 2000 4th round draft pick (Tim Preston)

Juneau was a rental, but he produced in the playoffs that year.

-Michal Grosek traded to Chicago Blackhawks for Doug Gilmour and Jean-Pierre Dumont

One of the biggest fleece jobs in team history.

-Michael Peca traded to NYI for Tim Connolly and Taylor Pyatt.

Wish he never made this trade, but he at least got something out of an asset that wasn't doing anything.

-Dominik Hasek traded to Detroit for Vyacheslav Kozlov, a first-round pick in 2002 and future considerations
-Vyacheslav Kozlov, 41st pick overall in 2002 traded to Atlanta for 31st and 82nd picks overall in the 2002 draft.

Got a first rounder for a player that no longer wanted to be here.

-Erik Rasmussen traded to Los Angeles for Adam Mair and a 5th round pick in the 2003 entry draft.

Mair has been a fixture on the team, and got an extra pick.

-Chris Gratton and a 4th round pick in 2004 entry draft traded to Phoenix Coyotes for Daniel Briere and a 3rd round pick in 2004

Yea.

-6th round pick in 2006 NHL entry draft traded to the Washington Capitals for Tim Kennedy.


While he hasn't always made the right moves, he's made moves. EVERY YEAR.

The past few years have sucked, but I can't say for sure that there were even moves to BE made. I think Darcy's on the right track (as evidenced by your post), but he doesn't make the move for the sake of making a move.

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I still dispute Larry's creative accounting methods, but that's a story for another thread.

sabresbillsfan is not a one trick pony. he'll also root for us to lose so we can get better draft picks...like a true fan!


Next time SBF makes a post about Darcy in a thread that doesn't have the word Darcy in the title he should just be banned. He already derailed this thread.

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Proud LGBTQQ Individual