Those stats are meaningless.

Can someone get Squanto a basket of kittens for christmas? All his posts recently have been angry internet assaults on statistics.

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"Call a cop he robbed Delmore blind!!!"
Rick Jeanerette after Marty Biron's diving save back in 2000.

"I'm going to go to the spa and have a hot tub and massage and relax," Miller said. "That's it, and it's back to work tomorrow." Ryan Miller after clinching the North East division.

Just don't let him pick up peppers, onions and some dressing before he gets the kittens......

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Lord Stanley's Cup is what its all about.
Mr. Pegula, your destiny awaits you sir.

Those aren't statistics.

They are implying to have predicted the outcome of every remaining regular season game for every team in the league. That's an absurdity.

Everything you say is wrong, Slesh. You should know this.

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"Counting all the assholes in the room, I'm definitely not alone!" ~ Michael Poulsen, Volbeat, Still Standing.

But I do know this. It hasn't prevented me from saying it in the past, so I don't worry about it now...

All kidding aside though, Squanto is correct, those stats are depending on a predetermined set of events that have not occured as of yet, but they are derrived off of the existing play of the team already. So there is some guidelines they do go by.

We are only 8 points out of 8th, but some teams have games in hand, that doesn't mean they'll win those games so I don't necessarily count them. On the opposite end of the spectrum from that point though is the fact that this Team still hasn't found true consistency. 4-1-1 then on to an 0-2 record, so overall in that span a 4-3-1 record or hovering around 500 hockey. I can deduce that not only they won't make the playoffs, but they'll end up with the 3 to 6 pick overall with that record continuing.
But if you come back to this say in late Jan./early Feb. and the numbers change to a 65 or 75 percent win record, they could be looking at the 7th or 8th seed or, if they aren't in the playoff race by then, the 8th to 12th pick overall. It really is all subjective. I can only base my view or opinion of where the team will be at the end of the season by the way the team has already played this season. I have nothing else to really go on.

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Lord Stanley's Cup is what its all about.
Mr. Pegula, your destiny awaits you sir.

I agree with you that I don't think this team is going to make the playoffs. If you remember, I said this in early November when they had to hit something like 60% of available points just to match last year's 8th place output.

I'm just not one to present some meaningless numbers under the guise of mathematical analysis to back up my point.

You know what? The fucking Sabres will not only make the fucking playoffs but they will win the fucking Stanley fucking Cup!


I'll fight any man who thinks differently...

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"I love that you know how to do that." Cheryl/Carol/Crystal

"And I love that I have an erection that doesn't involve homeless people." Kreiger

i'm not saying i think differently; i know differently. the sabres will not make the playoffs, and there is a conspiracy to undermine the legitimacy of mathematics. when 2+2+_ = 5, you know the missing number is one. everyone, except for you, knows that the sabres are not making the playoffs, therefore the variable has to be filled in. statistics aren't meaningless when the results surrounding them are!?!?!?!???!!!

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young people everywhere have been allowed to choose between love and a garbage disposal unit. everywhere they have chosen the garbage disposal unit. (guy debord)

So you're a fucking fortune teller? You can definitely say that the Sabres wont make the playoffs?

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"Counting all the assholes in the room, I'm definitely not alone!" ~ Michael Poulsen, Volbeat, Still Standing.

I don't even know what point this is supposed to convey.

Miracles do happen....

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These numbers aren't uselss mathematics Squanto, its statistical data pure and simple. And it happens to convey a very accurate picture when used. Hence Statistical Analysis, Risk Assesments, Percentage Mathematics...etc...etc...
In short, its used every day in one form or another and its used with a high degree of success.

I do agree with you in principal that we cannot use these numbers as "events that will happen", we can use these numbers though to determine the most likely course events will take.

I too am of the mind set that this team is not going to make the playoffs, but hell, outside of last seasons great play by Miller, I've been of this mind set every season since D/B left, once again simply because of statistical mathematics.

Its a great debate and all, but at the end of the day on this, the Sabres aren't going to the dance, and statistically speaking, even if they made it to the playoffs, had a very tiny fraction of a percentage that they would actually win the Cup.

Which brings it back away from mathematics and into the management of this teams assets under Regier.
Nothing is going to happen in the way of player movement simply due to the fact that these players contracts are a part of the asset listing in the sale of the team, and that price has already been established. Until Mr. Pegula takes over, this teams roster is what it is and this teams record will reflect that roster.

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Lord Stanley's Cup is what its all about.
Mr. Pegula, your destiny awaits you sir.

Miller getting hot isn't as important as the forwards getting hot, which isn't going to happen. Thomas Vanek, a 1.5 liner, two second liners, a bunch of third liners, and tim fucking connolly.

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Proud LGBTQQ Individual

TIMMMMMY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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savior?!?!?!?!

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Can't play in the NHL with one and a half first liners.

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Proud LGBTQQ Individual

I have 2 semesters of statistics and 3 of calculus under my belt. I know enough to know what statistical analysis is and is not.

This is not it. The guy who runs the website admits that he has no guess on the accuracy of what he's putting out there. You know how he determines outcomes for all future games? He flips a coin. His percentage chance that he reports is based on running a flawed set of simulations over a large number of trials, then reporting the results.

Bad data in, bad data out.

You can scream all you want about how he's using statistics, but his output means nothing.

it's strange...Tom is being optimistic in a negative way

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Hold my beer and watch this...

I would agree with this... And I don't think you can win consistently in the NHL with a Roy, Ennis, Gerbe in the line up.... they all need to be in the top 6 to be truly effective and you're simply giving up to much size to other teams... you can get away with 2, but not 3...

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