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PuckSniperPensel
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 12:55 pm 
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Many people here believe that the top 6 aren't talented enough to improve their scoring, and that they aren't doing enough to produce.

I'd like to point out a few things that might turn your wheels.

Currently, the Sabres are tied for 2nd in the NHL in power play opportunities for with 104.

This means that with their speed, puck control, and hard work in the offensive zone, they've been one of the best teams in the NHL at drawing penalties. That's typically a sign of an offense that is very difficult to contain.

Unfortunately, they haven't been difficult to contain once they're ON the power play.

The Sabres are running at an efficiency (or deficiency) of 16.2% on the power play, good for 27th in the NHL.

As a team, if you're going to lose chances to score because people are hauling you down on your path to the goal, you HAVE to take advantage of your opportunities with the man advantage.

Unfortunately, that hasn't happened. At an efficiency of 16.2%, the Sabres have scored a measly 25 goals on 104 attempts.

In order to be a top 10 power play team in the league, they'd have to have an efficiency of over 21%.

To date, that would make a difference of 8 goals on the season.

Doesn't sound like much right? But it is.

8 more goals scored this season would put us 1 shy of the same amount of goals for as Chicago, right in the middle of the pack. Essentially, we'd be 15th in scoring instead of 24th.

I know that doesn't sound too impressive, but when you're allowing the fewest goals against per game in the NHL, being middle of the pack in scoring is plenty.

If James Patrick is able to turn our fortunes around, a 21% efficiency on the power play could be enough to make us a miserable team to play against.

Combine that with learning to take smarter shots in 5 on 5 play as the season goes on, and this group of players could actually get something done for us.

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sabretime30
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 1:03 pm 
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All I can say to this is simple: Perfectly Said!

If we had eight more goals over the course of this season looking at games we lost by 1-2 goals we could have had about an extra 3-4 wins easily. The best example of this would probably be this past weekend against pittsburgh where the team went 0-7 on the PP. If we scored just one time out of those 7 chances we had the win. This can be said for other games where we've lost by a max two goals. If you subtract every goal needed to win a game from approximately 8 extra that we could have had we end up with another 6-8 points this season. That gives us about 53 points and tied atop first place in the East and tied atop first in the NHL.

I do believe the top 6 can produce more then they currently are/have but the PP is a big issue we need to fix.

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motzie12ak
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 1:11 pm 
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beautiful analysis. Well put and I agree with you.
The only real beef I've had this season is with the powerplay, and if they can get that going then this team could be downright scary.

One thing I love about this team this season though, is that even when they aren't having that good of game, they still are finding ways to win them.
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slesh
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 1:35 pm 
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I respectfully agree with your post.

"This means that with their speed, puck control, and hard work in the offensive zone, they've been one of the best teams in the NHL at drawing penalties. That's typically a sign of an offense that is very difficult to contain."

But I think if you check the stats on Kaleta, he has drawn a majority of the penalties. That in itself is a great sign of his abilities but in the same set of circumstances also shows the plight of effort (or lack there of) from the top 6 forwards. Now I don't in any way intend to take away from Kaleta's efforts, to me anyways, he has performed above and beyond the call of duty.

I do, however, take exception to the implication that our offensive players have impacted this stat to such an extent. If our offense is so difficult to contain as you state, then it is a clear absence of the ability to finish a play or put the puck in the net from our offensive threats that lead us to the stat we now have from a team standpoint. This only goes to add reinforcing supporting data that a trade should not only be made, but is the logical solution to the problem.
34 games is a reasonable amount of games to draw data from and establish a course of action off of.

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YankeeInRaleigh
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 2:31 pm 
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Good analysis.

But check your math, 25/104 = 24%


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PuckSniperPensel
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 2:38 pm 
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YankeeInRaleigh wrote:
Good analysis.

But check your math, 25/104 = 24%


I didn't do the math. ESPN did. ;)

I think it has something to do with how they group power play opportunities.

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Sabresfansince1980
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 7:45 pm 
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http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/team/ ... werPlayPct

They have it right on this page. Buffalo has scored 25 pp goals on 155 attempts. Of course some of those are abbreviated chances due to taking penalties on the PP, but that's the same for everyone. Another six goals would put them at 20% - good for a respectable 10th or 11th place. Six goals would probably amount to another 2-3 pts, or another 6-8 pts over the entire season.

I'm with slesh though, I don't think the opps are due to the top six being real hard to play against. It's from Kaleta and the puck control and great forechecking of the bottom six. Kennedy, Ellis, and Gaustad draw a good amount of penalties just from owning the boards at times.

Ironically, Pitt has the most PP opps and are dead last.


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daz28
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 8:00 pm 
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Do you suppose there is anyone on Anaheim's message board saying, "the PP is great, wait until the defense peaks, then we'll be all set"?

It's pretty hard to sugar coat 22nd in goals and 28th in PP. It's indicative of an anemic offense. That's about it. If we had an average goalie, you may be able to say different, but we have goaliebot 9000.


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PuckSniperPensel
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 8:31 pm 
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daz28 wrote:
Do you suppose there is anyone on Anaheim's message board saying, "the PP is great, wait until the defense peaks, then we'll be all set"?

It's pretty hard to sugar coat 22nd in goals and 28th in PP. It's indicative of an anemic offense. That's about it. If we had an average goalie, you may be able to say different, but we have goaliebot 9000.


That's not a fair comparison daz. I'm talking about one element of special teams that has suffered from poor coaching for the past 3 years.

A whole defense issue stems much further than that.

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VanekKing
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 8:31 pm 
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daz28 wrote:

It's pretty hard to sugar coat 22nd in goals and 28th in PP. It's indicative of an anemic offense.

Or it's indicative of the system we are now playing.. This isn't the same 06-07 system.. It's all about defense and that means your team is not going to be in the top 10 in goals scored..

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daz28
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 8:57 pm 
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PuckSniperPensel wrote:
daz28 wrote:
Do you suppose there is anyone on Anaheim's message board saying, "the PP is great, wait until the defense peaks, then we'll be all set"?

It's pretty hard to sugar coat 22nd in goals and 28th in PP. It's indicative of an anemic offense. That's about it. If we had an average goalie, you may be able to say different, but we have goaliebot 9000.




A whole defense issue stems much further than that.

True, they have a whole defensive issue, and we only have a half an offensive issue.
Ryan Miller is the wild card in this whole discussion. I think if you put an average guy in, then we're pretty much shit. Maybe not, but I think most people might think so.


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daz28
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 9:00 pm 
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VanekKing wrote:
daz28 wrote:

It's pretty hard to sugar coat 28th in PP. It's indicative of an anemic offense.

Or it's indicative of the system we are now playing.

Ya, which is crappy. No one sets up a PP to be defensive and come in last in the league. PSP may be right, and if/when the PP kicks in, we're fine, but you can't make excuses for a shit PP by saying our system is defensive??


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icehound
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 9:09 pm 
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VanekKing wrote:
daz28 wrote:

It's pretty hard to sugar coat 22nd in goals and 28th in PP. It's indicative of an anemic offense.

Or it's indicative of the system we are now playing.. This isn't the same 06-07 system.. It's all about defense and that means your team is not going to be in the top 10 in goals scored..


A powerplay is an opportunity to control the puck, while enjoying the advantage of an extra man on the ice...it's success should not be predicated upon the consideration of defensive play.

...unless, that is, one cannot control the puck - EVEN with a man-advantage. Which we have seen, to be sure.

What one does with the puck which one's team controls is an entirely different issue. It should be, in its' simplest form, a child's game of "keep-away".

But, what happens? Turnovers.

Turnovers due to poor, and especially weak passing (practice,) turnovers due to poor decision-making (discipline/simplicity,) turnovers due to overhandling the puck (discipline/simplicity,) turnovers due to a lack of skating, mobility and puck-movement (skating and conditioning drills,) turnovers due to missed shots (practice,) or blocked shots which are telegraphed - such as the slapshot (practicing discipline/simplicity and fundamental shooting decisions, based on a skill-set which includes, and is dominated by, the wrist shot.)

Who are the primary role-players on the powerplay? The top six. Who are the primary culprits? The top six. Who have led the team in giveaways over the last two-plus seasons? The top six.

Ain't got nuthin to do with Deeefence (and a defensively-responsible system of gap-control and backchecking) and EVERYTHING to do with bein' stubborn and thick-headed and gettin' fancy and fukkin' around. And some plain-old fat-assed standing around.

And then gettin' pissy when you're told that it ain't workin' and you better change your ways.

Simple. Yes?


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BlueandYellow
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 9:14 pm 
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icehound wrote:
VanekKing wrote:
daz28 wrote:

It's pretty hard to sugar coat 22nd in goals and 28th in PP. It's indicative of an anemic offense.

Or it's indicative of the system we are now playing.. This isn't the same 06-07 system.. It's all about defense and that means your team is not going to be in the top 10 in goals scored..


A powerplay is an opportunity to control the puck, while enjoying the advantage of an extra man on the ice...it's success should not be predicated upon the consideration of defensive play.

...unless, that is, one cannot control the puck - EVEN with a man-advantage. Which we have seen, to be sure.

What one does with the puck which one's team controls is an entirely different issue. It should be, in its' simplest form, a child's game of "keep-away".

But, what happens? Turnovers.

Turnovers due to poor, and especially weak passing (practice,) turnovers due to poor decision-making (discipline/simplicity,) turnovers due to overhandling the puck (discipline/simplicity,) turnovers due to a lack of skating, mobility and puck-movement (skating and conditioning drills,) turnovers due to missed shots (practice,) or blocked shots which are telegraphed - such as the slapshot (practicing discipline/simplicity and fundamental shooting decisions, based on a skill-set which includes, and is dominated by, the wrist shot.)

Who are the primary role-players on the powerplay? The top six. Who are the primary culprits? The top six. Who have led the team in giveaways over the last two-plus seasons? The top six.

Ain't got nuthin to do with Deeefence (and a defensively-responsible system of gap-control and backchecking) and EVERYTHING to do with bein' stubborn and thick-headed and gettin' fancy and fukkin' around. And some plain-old fat-assed standing around.

And then gettin' pissy when you're told that it ain't workin' and you better change your ways.

Simple. Yes?


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slesh
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 10:12 pm 
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icehound wrote:
VanekKing wrote:
daz28 wrote:

It's pretty hard to sugar coat 22nd in goals and 28th in PP. It's indicative of an anemic offense.

Or it's indicative of the system we are now playing.. This isn't the same 06-07 system.. It's all about defense and that means your team is not going to be in the top 10 in goals scored..


A powerplay is an opportunity to control the puck, while enjoying the advantage of an extra man on the ice...it's success should not be predicated upon the consideration of defensive play.

...unless, that is, one cannot control the puck - EVEN with a man-advantage. Which we have seen, to be sure.

What one does with the puck which one's team controls is an entirely different issue. It should be, in its' simplest form, a child's game of "keep-away".

But, what happens? Turnovers.

Turnovers due to poor, and especially weak passing (practice,) turnovers due to poor decision-making (discipline/simplicity,) turnovers due to overhandling the puck (discipline/simplicity,) turnovers due to a lack of skating, mobility and puck-movement (skating and conditioning drills,) turnovers due to missed shots (practice,) or blocked shots which are telegraphed - such as the slapshot (practicing discipline/simplicity and fundamental shooting decisions, based on a skill-set which includes, and is dominated by, the wrist shot.)

Who are the primary role-players on the powerplay? The top six. Who are the primary culprits? The top six. Who have led the team in giveaways over the last two-plus seasons? The top six.

Ain't got nuthin to do with Deeefence (and a defensively-responsible system of gap-control and backchecking) and EVERYTHING to do with bein' stubborn and thick-headed and gettin' fancy and fukkin' around. And some plain-old fat-assed standing around.

And then gettin' pissy when you're told that it ain't workin' and you better change your ways.

Simple. Yes?

1st place :)

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icehound
PostPosted: Tue Dec 22, 2009 11:22 pm 
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BTW...not to be a total prick and rub it in, but. This entire team has a problem/blind-spot regarding keeping their sticks on the ice. Period.

I have never understood that problem/phenomenon.

I have found, in my observations, that it may well be attributable to the lightness of the sticks, these days.

A subtle thing. If you find it's getting heavy in your hands and your wrists and forearms are getting tired...you set the fucker down.

Eventually you just learn to skate around with the stick on the ice; guiding it like a blade in front of you, until an opportunity to make a play arises.

If one watches old videos (wooden sticks) even on a breakaway, the stick stays on the ice, extended in front of a player, until he reaches a critical point where he decides to start handling it, for a goal-scoring opportunity. Nobody carries or waves them around, unless it's in the pregame warm-up.

The puck is on the ice, for pretty much 99% of the entire game...where should one's stick be, to better contact and control and inadvertantly deflect and intercept the puck? (my old coach used to say...)

"On the fucking ice! That's where."

Maybe a heavier stick would restore that sensibility. It would also cut down on all those bullshit hack and snag and hook penalties, which one is tempted to try, with a featherlight.

And it wouldn't break near as often.

Just a thought - And if all these "stars" are in such great shape, what difference do a couple of ounces make? Are all these guys like eight year-olds, with chicken-arms?

So what's the deal with shaving a handful of ounces off the weight? What's the advantage?

Just asking...'cos I've played with both, and I can still extend a wooden stick out at arms-length and level with just one hand, without too much effort. And I ain't too husky, either.

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PuckSniperPensel
PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 12:14 am 
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icehound wrote:
VanekKing wrote:
daz28 wrote:

It's pretty hard to sugar coat 22nd in goals and 28th in PP. It's indicative of an anemic offense.

Or it's indicative of the system we are now playing.. This isn't the same 06-07 system.. It's all about defense and that means your team is not going to be in the top 10 in goals scored..


A powerplay is an opportunity to control the puck, while enjoying the advantage of an extra man on the ice...it's success should not be predicated upon the consideration of defensive play.

...unless, that is, one cannot control the puck - EVEN with a man-advantage. Which we have seen, to be sure.

What one does with the puck which one's team controls is an entirely different issue. It should be, in its' simplest form, a child's game of "keep-away".

But, what happens? Turnovers.

Turnovers due to poor, and especially weak passing (practice,) turnovers due to poor decision-making (discipline/simplicity,) turnovers due to overhandling the puck (discipline/simplicity,) turnovers due to a lack of skating, mobility and puck-movement (skating and conditioning drills,) turnovers due to missed shots (practice,) or blocked shots which are telegraphed - such as the slapshot (practicing discipline/simplicity and fundamental shooting decisions, based on a skill-set which includes, and is dominated by, the wrist shot.)

Who are the primary role-players on the powerplay? The top six. Who are the primary culprits? The top six. Who have led the team in giveaways over the last two-plus seasons? The top six.

Ain't got nuthin to do with Deeefence (and a defensively-responsible system of gap-control and backchecking) and EVERYTHING to do with bein' stubborn and thick-headed and gettin' fancy and fukkin' around. And some plain-old fat-assed standing around.

And then gettin' pissy when you're told that it ain't workin' and you better change your ways.

Simple. Yes?



Look at every single team in the league, and I'll bet you the skill players have more giveaways than the grinders on ANY roster, on ANY given day, due to the simple fact that they're expected to handle the puck more, and they DO handle the puck more.

This team passes the puck extremely well through the neutral zone during 5 on 5 play, and they fail at it when they hit the power play.

It's because their break out plans suck. That has to do with coaching... which was addressed as of Sunday.

Have you forgotten that the likes of Vanek, Roy, and Connolly were VITAL pieces in 2005-2006 when the Sabres had a top 3 power play?

Scott Arniel (I believe) was coaching the power play back then, and they knew how to enter the zone, pass and move, and look for the good opportunities; when to shoot and when to pass.

As soon as McCutcheon took it over, it went to shit.

Coaching is the main issue on the power play, not the players on the ice.

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VanekKing
PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 12:37 am 
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daz28 wrote:
VanekKing wrote:
daz28 wrote:

It's pretty hard to sugar coat 28th in PP. It's indicative of an anemic offense.

Or it's indicative of the system we are now playing.

Ya, which is crappy. No one sets up a PP to be defensive and come in last in the league. PSP may be right, and if/when the PP kicks in, we're fine, but you can't make excuses for a shit PP by saying our system is defensive??


Why did you erase the part where I say this team won't be in the top 10 in goals scored?? Because I wasn't commenting on PP goals.. I was commenting on where you said we are 22nd in the league in goals..

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daz28
PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 1:11 am 
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VanekKing wrote:
daz28 wrote:
VanekKing wrote:
daz28 wrote:

It's pretty hard to sugar coat 28th in PP. It's indicative of an anemic offense.

Or it's indicative of the system we are now playing.

Ya, which is crappy. No one sets up a PP to be defensive and come in last in the league. PSP may be right, and if/when the PP kicks in, we're fine, but you can't make excuses for a shit PP by saying our system is defensive??


Why did you erase the part where I say this team won't be in the top 10 in goals scored?? Because I wasn't commenting on PP goals.. I was commenting on where you said we are 22nd in the league in goals..

To be fair it said both. I just rerased the part where I said 22nd in G/G to show you where you missed PP 28th.
The topic is basically about the PP.
Easy man, no one is trying to douche you.


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jordano
PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 2:42 am 
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icehound wrote:
BTW...not to be a total prick and rub it in, but. This entire team has a problem/blind-spot regarding keeping their sticks on the ice. Period.

I have never understood that problem/phenomenon.

I have found, in my observations, that it may well be attributable to the lightness of the sticks, these days.

A subtle thing. If you find it's getting heavy in your hands and your wrists and forearms are getting tired...you set the fucker down.

Eventually you just learn to skate around with the stick on the ice; guiding it like a blade in front of you, until an opportunity to make a play arises.

If one watches old videos (wooden sticks) even on a breakaway, the stick stays on the ice, extended in front of a player, until he reaches a critical point where he decides to start handling it, for a goal-scoring opportunity. Nobody carries or waves them around, unless it's in the pregame warm-up.

The puck is on the ice, for pretty much 99% of the entire game...where should one's stick be, to better contact and control and inadvertantly deflect and intercept the puck? (my old coach used to say...)

"On the fucking ice! That's where."

Maybe a heavier stick would restore that sensibility. It would also cut down on all those bullshit hack and snag and hook penalties, which one is tempted to try, with a featherlight.

And it wouldn't break near as often.

Just a thought - And if all these "stars" are in such great shape, what difference do a couple of ounces make? Are all these guys like eight year-olds, with chicken-arms?

So what's the deal with shaving a handful of ounces off the weight? What's the advantage?

Just asking...'cos I've played with both, and I can still extend a wooden stick out at arms-length and level with just one hand, without too much effort. And I ain't too husky, either.

Cheers.

I have no idea why you started this argument but I think it's completely pointless.

The usuage of wooden sticks or composite is according to your preferencee. I like composite because it IS lighter and it has more of a kick. As do 99% of the NHL.

Are you saying that the Sabres take too many hooking penalties or something? And if you are, do you suggest that wooden sticks would prevent this or are you being sarcastic?

And also, if you've actually watched vintage games you'd notice that hooking and holding plagued the game back then so don't bs everybody by saying that their sticks were on the ice because it was the exact opposite.

I bet if you asked Ovechkin if he'd like to switch to wooden sticks, he wouldn't smile and say 'well at least I'll have my stick on the ice.'

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