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slesh
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 10:56 pm 
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Crosscheck wrote:
it's strange...Tom is being optimistic in a negative way ;)

Don't encourage him :lol:

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slesh
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 10:59 pm 
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Squanto wrote:
slesh wrote:
These numbers aren't uselss mathematics Squanto, its statistical data pure and simple. And it happens to convey a very accurate picture when used. Hence Statistical Analysis, Risk Assesments, Percentage Mathematics...etc...etc...
In short, its used every day in one form or another and its used with a high degree of success.


I have 2 semesters of statistics and 3 of calculus under my belt. I know enough to know what statistical analysis is and is not.

This is not it. The guy who runs the website admits that he has no guess on the accuracy of what he's putting out there. You know how he determines outcomes for all future games? He flips a coin. His percentage chance that he reports is based on running a flawed set of simulations over a large number of trials, then reporting the results.

Bad data in, bad data out.

You can scream all you want about how he's using statistics, but his output means nothing.

Who is screaming? And I wasn't aware he flipped a coin. But I will say, in the larger scheme of things, I will follow this guys page to the end of the season to see how it all pans out based on the numbers I posted from his site. If it appears as though those numbers were less than..lets say 70% accurate, I'd be surprised, even with the coin toss.

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gr8daygo
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 11:00 pm 
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Squanto wrote:
slesh wrote:
These numbers aren't uselss mathematics Squanto, its statistical data pure and simple. And it happens to convey a very accurate picture when used. Hence Statistical Analysis, Risk Assesments, Percentage Mathematics...etc...etc...
In short, its used every day in one form or another and its used with a high degree of success.


I have 2 semesters of statistics and 3 of calculus under my belt. I know enough to know what statistical analysis is and is not.

This is not it. The guy who runs the website admits that he has no guess on the accuracy of what he's putting out there. You know how he determines outcomes for all future games? He flips a coin. His percentage chance that he reports is based on running a flawed set of simulations over a large number of trials, then reporting the results.

Bad data in, bad data out.

You can scream all you want about how he's using statistics, but his output means nothing.



HEY!!! I remember that from stats class... i think my professor put it as garbage in = garbage out....

I haven't been following the stats discussion... BUT that sounded familiar!

Im knida on hold with expectations of this team until ownership is settled... Best christmas ever would be Terry in place as the owner! And I mean NO disrespect to Big Tom... I appreciate all he has done for this team, with the exception of the mighty Quinn.... I would simply LOVE to see a hockey guy, a sabres fan, in charge of the team! Come on Terry and Big Tom... get it done!

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fly as hale
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 11:32 pm 
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NYIntensity wrote:
Trading Miller for a star forward starts to look pretty appetizing.

Too bad a trade like that doesn't exist. Try and name a team that will trade away one of their star forwards for Miller.

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Timbo Slice
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 11:51 pm 
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fly as hale wrote:
NYIntensity wrote:
Trading Miller for a star forward starts to look pretty appetizing.

Too bad a trade like that doesn't exist. Try and name a team that will trade away one of their star forwards for Miller.


Chicago? Dallas? Philly?


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fly as hale
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 11:54 pm 
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Timbo Slice wrote:
Chicago? Dallas? Philly?

Yeah? Which players? You think Chicago could afford Miller?

And with the way Philly and Dallas are playing, I find it hard to believe they would make such a major move as to trade their most important pieces to acquire Miller.

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useful fictions
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Sun Dec 19, 2010 11:58 pm 
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Squanto wrote:
useful fictions wrote:
i'm not saying i think differently; i know differently. the sabres will not make the playoffs, and there is a conspiracy to undermine the legitimacy of mathematics. when 2+2+_ = 5, you know the missing number is one. everyone, except for you, knows that the sabres are not making the playoffs, therefore the variable has to be filled in. statistics aren't meaningless when the results surrounding them are!?!?!?!???!!!


I don't even know what point this is supposed to convey.


that was the point.

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X-pensfan
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:18 am 
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fisticuffs! who wants to be first?

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CriminallyVu1gar
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:22 am 
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fly as hale wrote:
Timbo Slice wrote:
Chicago? Dallas? Philly?

Yeah? Which players? You think Chicago could afford Miller?

And with the way Philly and Dallas are playing, I find it hard to believe they would make such a major move as to trade their most important pieces to acquire Miller.


Anyone can afford Miller if they give up enough cap space in return. Atlanta, Colorado, and Tampa Bay are all playoff teams (at the moment) that could use an upgrade in goaltending and have a ton of capspace according to capgeek.

Philadelphia has scorers coming out the ass (Briere, Giroux, Zherdev, Carter, Richards, Hartnell, Leino, van Reimsdyk). They might not mind parting with one or two and Bobrovsky/Leighton/Boucher for a stud goaltender. (I have no idea what a star goalie's value is in skaters.)

Miller + Connolly for Laich and Varlamov in Washington?


I don't really know, but I think the options are certainly out there.

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fly as hale
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:39 am 
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I'm just saying the type of player that we'd need that would compensate Miller's depature isn't going to be available. You really think Laich and Varlamov are better options than Miller? And when was the last time you saw a goalie get such a big return? Historically, goalies aren't involved in blockbuster trades.

It's a moot point anyways, because it will be a cold day in hell when the Sabres trade Miller.

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CriminallyVu1gar
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 2:29 am 
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fly as hale wrote:
I'm just saying the type of player that we'd need that would compensate Miller's depature isn't going to be available. You really think Laich and Varlamov are better options than Miller? And when was the last time you saw a goalie get such a big return? Historically, goalies aren't involved in blockbuster trades.

It's a moot point anyways, because it will be a cold day in hell when the Sabres trade Miller.



Well Laich would definitely give us some much needed help at Center though it's hard to tell what his impact would really be since his point totals are below Connolly.

Yep, you and me, rooting for the players whose contracts make them virtually immovable.

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Squanto
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 8:16 am 
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Clearly the best thing for a franchise that has a hard time attracting talent is to trade talent that is already here and wants to be here.

This notion that trading Miller because he has high value is silly. The objective is to keep the talented players you get, not to trade them away once you have a bad couple of months.


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DieHardFan
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 1:06 pm 
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Miller will always have high trade value. He's an established, solid #1 goaltender, and that's not going to change in the next 3-5 years, barring a catastrophic injury. The question really is whether anyone in the system (i.e. Enroth) is good enough to become a reliable #1 goaltender, and it's far too early to know that. If this does turn out eventually to be the case, then trading Miller to acquire high level talent would make a lot of sense.


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fly as hale
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 2:05 pm 
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Squanto wrote:
The objective is to keep the talented players you get, not to trade them away once you have a bad couple of months.

Exactly.

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PuckSniperPensel
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:04 pm 
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Trading Luongo really worked out for Florida.

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gr8daygo
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:09 pm 
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PuckSniperPensel wrote:
Trading Luongo really worked out for Florida.


and letting Boumester (spelling) go really strengthened their roster... shipping talent ALWAYS works out ....

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CriminallyVu1gar
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:47 pm 
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Squanto wrote:
Clearly the best thing for a franchise that has a hard time attracting talent is to trade talent that is already here and wants to be here.

This notion that trading Miller because he has high value is silly. The objective is to keep the talented players you get, not to trade them away once you have a bad couple of months.


I don't think that anyone is saying that it would be the best thing. (And I don't feel that if Miller is ever to be traded, that now is the time.) But I also don't think such a move should be considered off the table as an option to make the team better.

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BlueandYellow
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 4:50 pm 
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I will only trade Miller if we get a capable goal scorer and a goalie who doesn't suck, maybe a bit more. Philly has a few of each of those, and they want a franchise goaltender.

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Sabretooth
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 9:07 pm 
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The last time we traded our best goalie at the time, we received a forward who did not want to be here, who exited quickly with a self imposed season ending injury. I am sure Regier could do better if he still has a job.

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slesh
 Post subject: Re: BUF vs TB 12/18
PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 9:22 pm 
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When Pegula takes over as owner, all options will be on the table, including Miller.
Pegula isn't interested in fan favorites, he's interested in Stanley Cups.

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